Showing posts with label Christian Ponder. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Christian Ponder. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

KD's NFL Draft Grades - Minnesota Vikings


Perhaps no team made a more shocking pick than the Vikings selection of Florida State Quarterback Christian Ponder with the 12th overall selection. Many draft experts were left shaking their heads at the pick, but we know now that had Minnesota not taken him, Miami had him atop their draft board at the 15th selection. However, I believe that Ponder was worth a 1st round pick in the middle of the round, so I don't consider it much of a reach for Minnesota, especially since they had a huge need at the position. Minnesota ended up with 10 total selections that they used to help fill in some of the holes on their roster. At a quick glance on paper, Minnesota's roster is pretty complete, and the horrific play of Brett Favre just showed how important quality play at the quarterback spot is.

1st round, 12th overall) Christian Ponder - QB - Florida State
You'll recall that I liked Ponder better than just about every quarterback prospect in the draft except Ryan Mallett when it comes to on-field skills, and unlike Mallett, Ponder's record is as clean as a whistle. Ponder's extremely smart having already completed his undergraduate degree in finance and his MBA, and he was working on a Masters of Sport Management in the spring of 2011. Most of Ponder's struggles at FSU were due to injuries, coaching changes, and very inexperienced wide receivers in Tallahassee.

How he fits in: Ponder should be in the mix to start from day one as Brett Favre is finally done, we think. Joe Webb and Rhett Bomar probably won't stand in Ponder's way, so unless a veteran is brought in via free agency or traded for, Ponder should get a handle on the job right away. Ponder's got decent size at 6'2" 229lbs and comes from a pro-style offense at Florida State. Jimbo Fisher kept the offense pretty simplistic due to the young receivers and skill players. Ponder's got decent arm strength, and his athleticsim is very good. You sort of have to color him as a crossbreed of Aaron Rodgers and Chad Pennington.

Outlook: Ponder will certainly benefit from being able to hand the ball of to Adrian Peterson. Minnesota has some nice weapons in Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe, and Sidney Rice, if they're able to re-sign him. The offensive line is good, but it's getting old. Bryant McKinnie is still a mountain of a man but he's lost a step. Steve Hutchinson isn't the best guard in the NFL any more, and Phil Loadholt looks great one week and like a turnstyle the next. That's where Ponder's athleticsim will factor in as he can extend the play outside the pocket and still keep his eyes downfield, much like Favre did running all over the field. Ponder will see action early, and he's my favorite of the first 4 guys drafted to succeed.

2nd round, 43rd overall) Kyle Rudolph - TE - Notre Dame
I won't profess to know how the Vikings will use the dynamic tight end early on, but one of my old co-workers was Rudolph's basketball coach in high school and still keeps in touch with him, and in fact, was with Rudolph when he was drafted. He relayed that the plan was for Minnesota to use Visanthe Shiancoe as the starter and rotate Rudolph and veteran Jim Kleinsasser based on the situation (Rudolph in passing sets, and Kleinsasser in running sets). Then, they'll make a decision to keep one of the two between Shiancoe and Kleinsasser to team with for the future going forward after the 2011 season. Rudolph brings tremendous size, athleticism, and hands to the position. He's an adequate blocker, and he'll get better over time. The key for him is to stay healthy. At 6'6" and 259lbs, he's a nightmare mismatch for anyone in a defenses back seven. He just has to stay on the field.

4th round, 106th overall) Christian Ballard - DT - Iowa
Ballard's stock took a hit when it came out when he failed a drug test at the Combine in February, which is pretty dumb to say the least because you know it's coming up. Regardless of his off the field habits, which are frequent among players anyway, Ballard is a legitimate top 50 talent, so Minnesota got a nice value pick here. Ballard's undersized compared to the "Williams Wall" made up of Kevin and Pat, who've been shutting down run games since the mid 2000s. Ballard stands in at 6'3" 284lbs, but like most Hawkeye defenders, he displays great technique to make up for the lack of size. He's versatile and can be lined up as a strongside DE in short yardage situations, and that may be what the Vikings have in mind as Ray Edwards, who is following Tom Zbikowski into professional boxing, is a free agent. Ballard will see plenty of snaps, be it at end or tackle, and he should make an immediate impact.

5th round, 139th overall) Brandon Burton - CB - Utah
The Vikings traded away Benny Sapp just before the season started last year and Antoine Winfield is getting pretty old. Asher Allen, Lito Sheppard, and Frank Walker are little more than average depth at this point, so Minnesota decided to add a potential future starter to its lineup. Utah's program has been churning out solid defensive prospects over the last several years, and I think they'll really surprise people in the new Pac-12 conference. They'll miss Burton's presence as he opted to entre the draft a year early. Obviously, Burton could've benefited from an extra year at school, but he brings nice size 5'11" 190lbs to the table. A two-year starter, he's gotten his hands on a lot of footballs notching 18 pbus and 3 picks the past two seasons. He'll probably start as a dime or nickel player as a rookie and will have the opportunity to learn from a savvy vet like Winfield, which will help him in the future. Getting Chris Cook and Cedric Griffin back from injury will make it harder for Burton to earn playing time.

6th round, 168th overall) Demarcus Love - T - Arkansas
Playing through a leg injury, Love had a horrendous showing at the Senior Bowl and dropped way down draft boards. He might even have to switch inside to guard at the NFL level because of his lack of athleticism. At 6'4" 315lbs he's stout enough to anchor against a bull-rush, but has trouble mirroring and sliding his feet against quicker rushers. He bounced back and forth between left and right tackle at Arkansas (switching sides in certain series thanks to a strange gimmick in Bobby Petrino's offense). His technique leaves something to be desired and he'll get caught lunging after defenders and struggles in space. Minnesota might be a good fit for him, but he'll have to compete with a slew of guards on the roster to earn playing time.

6th round, 170th overall) Mistral Raymond - S - South Florida
Minnesota had a need at safety after some dissapointing play from Tyrell Johnson and an injury to Madieu Williams. Raymond was an off-the-radar pick and was a one year starter for the Bulls. He notched 43 tackles (4.5 for loss) and an interception as a senior. He has just average size and might just be purely a competition pick for one of the reserve safety spots. He'll have to show something in the preseason either on defense or special teams just to make it through final cuts.

6th round, 172nd overall) Brandon Fusco - C - Slippery Rock
Fusco was an intriguing player at the Senior Bowl as he more than held his own against a much higher level of competition. He showed decently well at the Combine and even showed up with some added muscle from the Senior Bowl, checking in at 6'4" 306lbs. He's very athletic and is a very quick learner, so coaches will like him a lot. His technique is raw, as he often plays too high and has trouble finding and sticking with work at the second level. While I don't think he'll push the incumbent John Sullivan this year, he could very well push him next year or even be the eventual successor to the great Steve Hutchinson at left guard.

6th round, 200th overall) Ross Homan - LB - Ohio State
Minnesota's had a strong group of linebackers the past couple of seasons led by E.J. Henderson and Chad Greenway. Ben Leber is capable of holding his own, but there's almost zero depth aside from Jasper Brinkley. Homan was a tackling machine for the Buckeyes recording 108 stops as a junior and 72 as a senior. He's also decent when going back into coverage, but he's short so you can throw over the top of him to backs and tight ends. He dispelled a lot of concerns showing up to the Combine at 240lbs, up from the 225lbs he was playing at in Columbus. Homan won't start as long as Chad Greenway is a Viking, but he's certainly a player who is smart enough to grasp the defense enough to take Leber or Henderson off the field on 3rd downs and in nickel situations.

7th round, 215th overall) D'Aundre Reed - DE - Arizona
The third DE from the Wildcats program behind Brooks Reeds and Ricky Elmore, D'Aundre provides the Vikings with another option for depth along the D-line. Everson Griffen and Brian Robison currently hold the top two spots, but they're not much to write home about. Reed played in 34 games with 7 starts over his final two years at Arizona, and was an adequate player. He brings a nice combination of size and athleticism to the table, but he just hasn't been able to put everything together yet. He might have his best football in front of him still, but he looks like he's destined for the practice squad at this point.

7th round, 236th overall) Stephen Burton - WR - West Texas A&M
It's pretty rare to have two players from the Lone Star Conference go in the Draft, but that's what happened with Miami's Edmond Gates and the Vikings Stephen Burton. Burton is a big receiver at 6'4" 215lbs and has decent speed. Prior to his arrival at West Texas A&M, he was a kick returner for Long Beach Community College averaging 23.9 yards per return. He'll give the Vikings a tall receiver to throw to, but he's a project at best for right now.

Overall Grade: B
As Ponder goes, so goes this draft grade. I really like the pick, he's just got to prove it out on the field. Kyle Rudolph and Christian Ballard are both solid players who will see a lot of action right away. After that though, the Vikings added a lot of depth. They owned the 6th round with four selections, the best of whom will be C Brandon Fusco. Demarucs Love has a long way to go, but he might shape himself into a useful player for the Vikings, perhaps a swing tackle or 3rd grade with possible starting potential down the road. However, there's not a whole lot to be excited about having so many late round options and just three picks in the first four rounds. However, all three of those picks should be good, and if they can develop Brandon Burton and Brandon Fusco, this draft will have shaped up pretty nicely. Any additional production they can get from the likes of Mistral Raymond, D'Aundre Reed, and Stephen Burton is a bonus.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

KD's 1st Round Draft Thoughts

I got this idea from a poster, Phil, who does this every year on the Dolphins site I frequent. Rather than grade each pick as they happen - though I will be giving grades for each team's complete draft starting next week - I'll record any lightbulbs that pop as the draft starts. Here we go.

Sometime around 5:45pm - Dr. Phil is on ESPN discussing the draft and how rookies don't get enough training about what to do with their money. I guess he's unaware of the Rookie Symposium. Seriously, what has the world come to when Dr. Phil is on ESPN covering the NFL Draft?

6:04pm - I get a text from my oldest friend Tyler, better known as "Nuts" for several reasons I'll not disclose, saying he and his fiancee just had a baby girl. No name as of yet, but congrats buddy! Perhaps they'll name her Melanie after Mel Kiper.

6:16pm - Get a text from one of my old interns asking if Miami is really considering Ryan Mallett at 15. I reply "yes" as I polish off my first beer. I honestly wouldn't be too upset if Mallett is the pick.

6:17pm - Read a post on the Dolphins board that the rumor is Miami will not select a QB in the first round unless they're able to trade back and recoup that 2nd round - or at least that's what they'd want you to think.

My reaction: *$&^, Miami's going to take Colin *%#&!#$ Kaepernick in round 2. Damn you Nick Saban, Daunte Culpepper, Joey Harrington, Trent Green, Cleo Lemon, John Beck, Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, Pat White, and Tyler Thigpen! Please note these are only the Dolphins starting QBs since 2006, and Nick Saban just because.

6:22pm - Ed Werder and John Elway interview. Elway is clearly bothered by being so close to Werder in the closet they're filming this in in "Denver". I get the sense Ole #7 isn't too high on Tim Tebow despite what he's saying.

6:35pm - Tyler's daughter is named Kaylee Grace. Congrats Tyler & Jen!

6:45pm - Naked Pizza arrives. If you haven't tried it, do it. Thank me later.

6:58pm - The rumor source also now says it could be Andy Dalton. Even worse. At least whoever the new coach and GM in 2012 will get Andrew Luck in 2012.

7:35-7:37pm - Roger Goodell getting booed with fans chanting "We Want Football!". Say what you want about New Yawkers, but they can start a chant with the best of them.

8:03pm - Cam Newton's going to the Panthers before Goodell even starts the draft. I hate how the TV cameras get access to the "Green Room" - takes all the drama out of it.

8:07pm - Cam is the pick. The Universal Draft guys called this one back in January. Kudos guys!

8:13pm - Von Miller to Denver...wonder how that's going to workout with Elvis Dumervil there. Should be an interesting handshake with Roger Goodell.

8:20pm - Damn, Buffalo's D is nasty up front with Dareus and Kyle Williams - the most underrated D-lineman in the NFL. Miami really needs Pouncey now!

8:26pm - Just found out from a source with NFL ties that Ryan Mallett isn't on Miami's draft board...great....

8:35pm - Atlanta with a huge trade with the Browns. Atlanta's offense is crazy good, and Cleveland got a king's ransom. I think this is a good trade for both parties, but makes the Dolphins two 2nd rounders for Brandon Marshall seem like peanuts.

8:43pm - Shocking that San Fran takes Aldon Smith...does Miami move up with Dallas for Gabbert now if he gets past Tennessee?

8:45pm - Well, I had Mallett in my mock to Tennesee, so I'm not that surprised with the Locker pick, but WOW for Tennessee passing on Gabbert and Fairley for him.

8:52pm - Jaguars almost land a deal with Dallas. Jags looking to move up still.

9:00pm - Truth - Schefter reports Jags trade up with Washington for Gabbert. Good move for the Jags in my opinion. He can learn under Garrard for a year or two.

9:06pm - I've received over 200 text messages/Facebook posts about the Draft today...and I'm no guru by any means. So glad Judge Nelson lifted the lockout; not sure what I'd do without the NFL.

9:48pm - After a dozen more texts and a phone call, I'm pretty happy with Mike Pouncey at 15 for my Dolphins. Yeah, it's a little high for a LG, but I think he'll prove to be worth it.

Unknown - After talking with a bunch of people about Miami's pick I lost track of time after a few celebratory Jack 'n Cokes...so the rest of the list will be bullitted.

- Ryan Kerrigan to Washington. Surprised, but looking back on my Mock Draft 2.0 a day later, I got 10 picks right - meaning that I correctly picked these team's picks (Newton, Green, Peterson, Pouncey, and Wilkerson) exactly, 3 guys slotted exactly right, but going to different teams (Ryan Kerrigan, Phil Taylor, Mark Ingram), and I'm going to be generous and give myself 2 more for calling Tennessee and Minnesota to take a QB that was unexpected (Mallett, Locker) when in reality it went Locker, Ponder. So, overall, I'll take that. Plus, I got another 3 teams that picked players at the same position, just the wrong player. I feel pretty good about that.

- For all the fawning over New England and their draft abilities, they pick Nate Solder. Really? I know they need offensive linemen, but Nate Solder. Yikes! I guess I can't complain too much for them drafting a very soft and very raw prospect. I guess if there's one O-line coach who can teach him it's the Pats Dante Sarnecchia (I know I butchered that spelling).

- Looking back at my first mock draft, I got 8 guys exactly right, plus Phil Taylor slotted correctly at 21, and I had Christian Ponder slotted in round 1. Overall I feel pretty good about the mocks, even if my percentage is low.

- Steal for the New York Giants with Prince Amukamara. Absolute steal.

- Peyton Manning is going to be a real happy guy with Anthony Castonzo at LT. Bill Polian got his 1st rounder right this year. No offense Jerry Hughes.

- My buddy B-Rad, a Browns fan, bails out before the Browns pick. I think he'll enjoy it when he wakes up. Phil Taylor is very good if he can keep his weight in check.

- Look at the bling on some of these guys who don't have contracts yet. Dareus, Pouncey, Ingram...all SEC players. And to think they don't get paid in college. I remember the HBO special on the Cam Newton/Cecil Newton scandal. One head coach of a BCS Conference school, not in the SEC though, asked for anonymity, but he said, "If we were recruiting a player to come to our school, and we learned that he was being recruited by an SEC school, we just gave up. We don't have that kind of money."

- Chizzy's got to like the military coming out on stage right before the Eagles pick. That's pretty patriotic in itself, especially with a team whose logo is on our national seal up to bat.

- And the Eagles draft a Canadien! Ha, should've seen that one coming. USA! USA!

- Okay, all things considered, Danny Watkins is the toughest, nastiest SOB in the entire draft. He played hockey, wrestled, and played rugby. He can play both T spots, LG, and C. I'm sure he'll be a starter from day one in Philly.

- Wow, Da'Quan Bowers' knee must really be messed up.

- James Carpenter to Seattle is not the reach that Mel Kiper is making it out to be. Can't wait to see what Todd McShay says about this. Solid pick by Seattle for a team that needs OL help, badly!

- Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome, master of letting the draft come to him, must have a major trade deal in the works to get passed up by KC. That's a really good pick for KC with Jonathan Baldwin there. Schefter reports Ravens on the phone with the Bears that whole time and had a misfire in communicaton. Good pick though with Jimmy Smith (I learned this morning that Smith had a codeiene problem at Colorado and thus, why he slid so badly).

- If there's one player in the draft I'd root for even if he went to a team I hate it's Mark Ingram. Heisman winner; humble dude; great story; and just a fun player to watch - he runs HARD. I thought that was a great moment with he and Suzy Kolber reading his dad's e-mail to him on stage. Great pick by the Saints as they get rid of Reggie "BUST".

- My buddy JM, a Packers and Wisconsin Badgers fan, is PISSED that Gabe Carimi goes to Chicago. Great pick by the Bears!

- Damn, the Steelers just draft defense well. Simply put, they're just unbelieveably good at defense - both playing it and drafting for it.

- Good pick by the Jets with Wilkerson. Up and coming player, and I'm afraid to see how Rex Ryan will use him.

- JM doesn't like Derek Sherrod. I'd spoken to him during the Combine and told him Sherrod could be their pick. I guess I should've gone with my gut in the mock drafts.

Well, there's my draft thoughts for the 1st round. The two major surprises were that Ryan Mallett slipped out of round 1. I guess the drug issue is more of a factor than we thought as 31 teams passed on him - note the Raiders didn't have a 1st round pick. Da'Quan Bowers' knee must be REALLY screwed up. He'd have been a top 10 pick for sure if healthy.

Todd McShay must be furious that his beloved Ginger QB Andy Dalton slipped out of round 1.

Fearless forecast for tomorrow, well, now tonight's Draft:

1) Da' Raidas will take Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick.

2) The Patriots will make more moves tomorrow and walk away with a pretty average draft despite having 5 picks tonight. ESPN overrates them way too much.

3) Someone's going to steal Andy Dalton from right under Cincinnati's nose, so keep an eye for them to take Ricky Stanzi, whom was their starting QB in the Senior Bowl, in round 3.

4) A run on RBs and TEs is going to start soon.

5) I bet an unexpected QB goes in round 3. The gut-shot straight draw would be Greg McElroy of Alabama.

Monday, April 11, 2011

2011 NFL Mock Draft Version 1.0

1. Carolina Panthers Cam Newton QB Auburn
- New coach Ron Rivera has primarily been a defensive coordinator throughout his career, so you can’ completely rule out someone like Marcel Dareus or Patrick Peterson, but ultimately I think they go Cam Newton here if they can’t trade out. Newton has the highest upside of any of the quarterbacks in the draft. He’s a winner, has good accuracy, had experience in a pro style offense in high school and at Blinn Junior College, and is very athletic. Prototypical size and measurables.
Current NFL Comparison: Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

2. Denver Broncos Marcel Dareus DT Alabama
- New coach John Fox still gets a high pick despite switching teams. New football operations boss, the legendary John Elway, and GM Brian Xanders have been meeting with all of the top quarterback prospects despite having Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, and Brady Quinn on the roster. Ultimately, I think they pass on a QB, at least in round one, and take the best defensive player available, Marcel Dareus. He’s scheme diverse, and should do well as a 3-technique in Denver’s new 4-3 defense.
Current NFL Comparison: Richard Seymour, Raiders

3. Buffalo Bills Von Miller LB Texas A&M
- GM Buddy Nix telegraphed picking C.J. Spiller last year. This year, while the Bills have visited with Newton and Gabbert, I think they learned their lesson from last year. The Bills switched to a 3-4 and made a star out of NT Kyle Williams. They have a solid secondary with youngster Jarius Byrd at FS. The one thing they lack is a dominant pass-rusher. Von Miller represents the best pure 3-4 OLB in the draft. He’ll have to develop some coverage skills, but he’s one of those guys that won’t have to play in reverse all that much. If Buffalo finds someone solid across from him, he’ll be really dangerous.
Current NFL Comparison: DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys

4. Cincinnati Bengals A.J. Green WR Georgia
- Mike Brown’s holding hostage of Carson Palmer muddies the water with the Bengals, who are unpredictable at times as it is. Unless Brown drastically changes his stance, which history tells us he won’t, Carson Palmer will be “retired” in 2011. That said, I don’t think the Bengals are that fond of Blaine Gabbert. They want someone to go downfield, and Cam Newton’s already gone. They can take A.J. Green here and have a weapon for whomever is quarterback. Green is as safe a bet as a WR prospect there’s been since Calvin Johnson in 2007.
Current NFL Comparison: Reggie Wayne, Colts

5. Arizona Cardinals Patrick Peterson CB LSU
- The Cardinals really want Von Miller to slide past Buffalo, but I don’t think he will, which makes them a team that might be looking to trade back. I don’t think Blaine Gabbert fits what they want at quarterback, and they might even be convinced to try and develop Max Hall or John Skelton before taking another quarterback. I think for right now, Patrick Peterson, who is the best player in the draft, is a good placeholder for them. They can use him at CB opposite Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie or at FS as Kerry Rhodes eventual replacement. But I still think they look to trade back.
Current NFL Comparison: Nnamdi Asomugha, Raiders

6. Cleveland Browns Robert Quinn DE North Carolina
- Pat Shurmer, another new head coach and football boss Mike Holmgren are switching to the 4-3. The Browns lacked a true passer for the 3-4, so they’ll try and use their personnel in a switch for the 4-3. Matt Roth can handle strong side DE duties, but they need a pass-rusher. North Carolina’s Robert Quinn is truly dynamic and looked outstanding at his pro day and at the Combine despite being suspended for the year. Cleveland could also target a receiver such as A.J. Green, or even a bit more dark horse here, but Julio Jones to give Colt McCoy a new weapon. For now, Quinn is the pick.
Current NFL Comparison: Elvis Dumervil, Broncos

7. San Francisco 49ers Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri
- The 49ers could go in a bunch of directions. Many project LSU’s Patrick Peterson falling here, and he’d fit in really well playing behind Patrick Willis. However, Alex Smith and Troy Smith are probably not what Jim Harbaugh wants long-term. Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert fits what Harbaugh did at Stanford decently well. While he take his lumps learning the nuances of dropping back, setting his feet properly, play action fakes, etc. he can lean on the running of Frank Gore and Vernon Davis in the seam.
Current NFL Comparison: Aaron Rodgers, Packers

8. Tennessee Titans Nick Fairley DT Auburn
- Mike Muchak would love for Blaine Gabbert to fall to the 8th pick, but I doubt that will happen. The Titans defense certainly lost some bite when Albert Haynesworth left for Dan Snyder’s money bags in D.C. Jason Jones is a freak in the middle, and Jovan Haye is serviceable, but Sen’Derrick Marks has yet to make the progress they expected. They go to the Auburn well again here with Fairley who is an outstanding one-gap penetrator in the 4-3. He should fit into the defense very well and make an immediate impact.
Current NFL Comparison: Gerald McCoy, Buccaneers

9. Dallas Cowboys J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin
- Under Bill Parcells, the Cowboys had a feared defense with DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis coming off the edges. Marcus Spears and Stephen Bowen are serviceable, but an upgrade is needed. J.J. Watt is better than any 5-technique end that’s come out in the past few years. He’s got a non-stop motor, strength at the point of attack, and he’s very athletic - his numbers are better than last year’s top 3-4 DE Jared Odrick (28th overall). Watt gives the Cowboys some more teeth up front, but you can’t count out an offensive lineman, or a trade down. Florida’s Mike Pouncey recently tweeted he’d be the pick, so who knows what Jerry Jones has going on.
Current NFL Comparison: Luis Castillo, Chargers

10. Washington Redskins Julio Jones WR Alabama
- Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb had a rocky first season together. McNabb had virtually no weapons aside from Chris Cooley. The running game died out, and they’ve got some young linemen protecting for McNabb. Since they probably won’t reach for Mark Ingram, the best available weapon is Alabama’s Julio Jones. Jones tore up the Combine with a broken bone in his foot, and should be 100% by the time the season rolls around. I’ve seen Jones in person, and while’s not that 4.39 speed guy, he’s plenty dominant and can catch everything.
Current NFL Comparison: Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

11. Houston Texans Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska
- The Texans secondary was one of the worst in the history of the NFL last year. First round pick Kareem Jackson and Dolphins re-tread Jason Allen struggled, and the Texans have little speed at the S position. With Nebraska’s Prince Amukamara on the board, the Texans have to take them. Many would say, why not draft a front seven player for the new 3-4 defense? Well, with the NFL being such a pass-first league now, you can’t pass on someone like Amukamara, especially if he falls here.
Current NFL Comparison: Tramon Williams, Packers

12. Minnesota Vikings Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas
- The Vikings have been known to take some risks in the draft (see Troy Williamson) and with the quarterback position in general (see Brett Favre). Having learned enough about Ryan Mallett to thwart some of the off-field rumors, the Vikings get the draft’s best pure passer. The Vikings have a win-now roster so they need to solve the quarterback issue pronto. They have little depth on the defensive side, so you can’t quite rule that out here, but the golden rule of drafting is don’t pass on a franchise quarterback if you don’t already have one.
Current NFL Comparison: Philip Rivers, Chargers

13. Detroit Lions Tyron Smith T USC
- The Lions don’t get lucky enough to have a top cornerback fall to them. They have a lot of holes, but are an improving team. However, Matthew Stafford can’t seem to stay upright, and drafting a franchise left tackle is a smart strategy. By drafting Smith, you can plug him at his natural RT spot and slide Gosder Cherlius inside to G while Smith gets adjusted. Or, you can put him on the blind side from day one and move Jeff Backs to RT or G. Either way, the Lions won’t continue to improve if Matthew Stafford isn’t on the field. Da’Quan Bowers is a dark-horse for me here as well.
Current NFL Comparison: Jermon Bushrod, Saints

14. St. Louis Rams Da’Quan Bowers DE Clemson
- The Rams lose hope after Julio Jones gets tabbed by the Redskins; they’ll have to wait to get Sam Bradford a weapon. The Rams have some holes on their defensive line, and Da’Quan Bowers falls to them. I think I take him over any DT in this draft. Bowers can play opposite Chris Long to give the Rams some more teeth on the defensive line. Bowers does have knee issues, but when healthy, he can be flat out dominant at times. A trade down wouldn’t be out of the question either, but I think the Rams get a quality player at #14 regardless of position.
Current NFL Comparison: Will Smith, Saints

15. Miami Dolphins Mike Pouncey C Florida
- If there’s any team, other than the Patriots, that’d I’d bet on to trade down in the first round, it’s the Dolphins. They don’t have a 2nd round pick as a result of the Brandon Marshall trade last year, so I think they’ll open shop to move down. If they stay however, I don’t think any of the quarterbacks represents an upgrade over what Chad Henne already is, at least this year. Mark Ingram isn’t the dynamic type of back that you draft early, so if they stay, I think they go with Mike Pouncey to play C or G and give an injection of athleticism to their statuesque interior of their offensive line.
Current NFL Comparison: Maurkice Pouncey, Steelers

16. Jacksonville Jaguars Christian Ponder QB Florida State
- The Jaguars take the quarterback the Dolphins pass on to be the heir to David Garrard. The Jaguars certainly know how to “shock” people (Tyson Alualu at 10 last year), but Ponder is a great fit for their system. He’s pretty similar to Garrard, and he’s already got a good grasp on a pro-style offense coming from Jimbo Fisher’s system in Tallahassee. The Jaguars have said quite a few times that they’re happy with Garrard…but you can’t trust teams this time of year. I think there’s some fire with that smoke here in Jacksonville, and a local guy would help put people in the seats.
Current NFL Comparison: Chad Pennington, Dolphins

17. New England Patriots Cameron Jordan DE California
- No team plays the draft game better than New England. However, the Patriots wheeling and dealing hasn’t gotten them that many solid players over the past few years. Ty Warren is coming off a serious injury and they traded away Richard Seymour, so they have to re-tool the D-line to get their defense back to the level it was at during their Super Bowl years. Cameron Jordan is an outstanding 5-technique player who can move. He’s not quite as big as J.J. Watt, but he’s proven he can get to the passer notching 17.5 over his career at Cal.
Current NFL Comparison: Kendall Langford, Dolphins

18. San Diego Chargers Aldon Smith LB Missouri
- The Chargers, another team known for trading on draft day to get who they want, would love to leapfrog New England as they too have needs in their front seven. While they miss out on a 3-4 DE, they can add a pass-rusher to go across from Shaun Phillips. Smith has absolutely violent hands and uses them well (Vernon Gholston take notes). He’s got speed off the edge, and he’s a solid run defender. He’ll have to take some time to transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4, but he should be able to start ahead of Larry English and Antwan Applewhite.
Current NFL Comparison: Bryan Thomas, Jets

19. New York Giants Anthony Castonzo T Boston College
- The Giants played musical chairs with their offensive line last year and it cost them…almost as much as their rookie punter kicking to DeSean Jackson. David Diehl and Kareem McKenzie are both aging at tackle, and though they’ve drafted players of the future (William Beatty), they may need a starting-caliber option now. Castonzo is a long, lean prospect who excels at pass blocking. He’s very smart and should be able to adjust to the pro game pretty quickly. I think Gabe Carimi could get some consideration here given the Giants physical running style, but ultimately, I don’t think Carimi pass-blocks well enough to warrant the nod over Castonzo at this point.
Current NFL Comparison: Sam Baker, Falcons

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa
- One of the youngest teams in the NFL is on the rise. The Bucs have an outstanding young QB in Josh Freeman, and they’ve begun retooling their defense. Gerald McCoy does need help on the defensive line, and the Bucs haven’t had a pass-rusher since the late Gaines Adams days. Adrian Clayborn had an up and down 2010, but when he’s going full bore, he’s a very good player. I think he fits well into the Bucs Cover 2 scheme and can play that strong side DE position opposite Stylez G. White (formerly Greg White). Clayborn’s production dipped as a senior, but I think he’ll regain his 2009 form in Tampa Bay’s system (20 TFL’s, 11.5 sacks).
Current NFL Comparison: Antwan Odom, Bengals

21. Kansas City Chiefs Phil Taylor NT Baylor
- The Chiefs were the NFL’s big surprise turnaround team in 2010. If they don’t want to fall back, as those teams tend to do, they need to get a NT to anchor their defense. Shaun Smith and Dion Gales leave a lot to be desired, and Baylor’s Phil Taylor can fill the void. Taylor’s been a fast-riser since the Senior Bowl and has gotten his weight down, yes down, to 334lbs. The former Penn State recruit is somewhat raw in technique and doesn’t always play as big as his size, but his best football is still ahead of him. I give Taylor the nod over Stephen Paea due to Paea’s knee injury.
Current NFL Comparison: Jamal Williams, Broncos

22. Indianapolis Colts Nate Solder T Colorado
- Colts GM Bill Polian said he was going to address the OL after losing to the Saints in the Super Bowl. Colts fans are still waiting. Charlie Johnson fared well playing at left tackle, but he’d better serve the Colts by kicking inside to guard. The Colts offense certainly isn’t physical, and passes more than it runs, so Nate Solder is the pick here to protect Peyton Manning’s blind side. Solder is more finesse than physical despite his 6’8” 319lbs frame. A converted tight end, he’s pretty athletic and is still learning the nuances of the position.
Current NFL Comparison: Jason Peters, Eagles

23. Philadelphia Eagles Akeem Ayers LB UCLA
- The Eagles always seem to draft well and get production out of their rookies. Ellis Hobbs’ retirement leaves a hole at CB, but I can’t see the Eagles taking someone who has character issues like Jimmy Smith of Colorado. They relied on Moise Fokou and Akeem Jordan at strong side LB last year. UCLA’s Akeem Ayers represents a big upgrade here. He’s big, can run, and makes plays behind the line (24.5 TFL’s the past two years). He’s also solid in coverage as well. Keep an eye on Philly to trade as well as they always seem to be in the market for acquiring future picks.
Current NFL Comparison: D.J. Williams, Broncos

24. New Orleans Saints Mark Ingram RB Alabama
- The Saints potent offense suffered a shutdown of sorts in the running game last year. Pierre Thomas got injured and is a free agent. Reggie Bush has never been capable of being an every down runner in the NFL, and Chris Ivey, while productive, might be a one-year wonder. Enter the former Heisman Trophy Winner Mark Ingram. Ingram gives the Saints a better inside runner to replace Pierre Thomas, who is also versatile enough to be in the passing game. This will help the Saints move Reggie Bush around and continue to get something out of him. D-line depth could also be in the cards here.
Current NFL Comparison: Shonn Greene, Jets

25. Seattle Seahawks Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue
- The Seahawks would normally be picking in the top half of the draft, but the NFC West is so bad, Seattle made the playoffs. A future QB could be an option here, but I just can’t picture Jake Locker going this high with his accuracy issues. Seattle could use a pass-rusher to play opposite Chris Clemons. Ryan Kerrigan of Purdue has really skyrocketed up boards lately having notched 23.5 sacks the past two years and 37.5 in his career. While not the greatest athlete, he plays downhill with excellent technique and figures to be what Seattle thought they were getting when they drafted Darryl Tapp.
Current NFL Comparison: Chris Long, Rams

26. Baltimore Ravens Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
- GM Ozzie Newsome is always known for sticking to his draft board and pulling in quality players. Jimmy Smith, if not for off-field issues, might be a top 15 pick in this year’s draft. If there’s one weakness to the Ravens defense, it’s at the cornerback position. Smith has size, speed, and is pretty good in run support…when he wants to be. He doesn’t always play up to his skill set and it’s been rumored that many teams are turned off by his personality and his failed drug test. That said, if there’s a team that is willing to overlook that, it’s Baltimore (see Sergio Kindle).
Current NFL Comparison: Charles Woodson, Packers

27. Atlanta Falcons Cameron Heyward DE Ohio State
- The Falcons laid a major egg in the playoffs against the Packers and part of the reason is because they couldn’t get to Aaron Rodgers. Jamaal Anderson has been a major bust a DE and John Abraham is getting older. Kroy Biermann plays well in spurts, but they could use some help. Cameron Heyward had a down year as a senior, and got manhandled by Gabe Carimi, the best tackle he faced all season. That said, Heyward offers versatility with the ability to play strong side end better than Anderson, and he can slide inside in passing situations.
Current NFL Comparison: Tyson Jackson, Chiefs

28. New England Patriots Brooks Reed LB Arizona
- The Patriots went 14-2 with Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich as their OLBs last season. I think they have something for the future with Jermaine Cunningham to team with Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes, which leaves a pure pass-rusher remaining. Arizona’s Brooks Reeds is pretty similar to Clay Matthews, who was also picked in this area in 2009. Reed’s 6’2” and 263lbs and has a non-stop motor. He’s got the ability to come off the edge and can play the run well. New England could also look to get help on the offensive line as Matt Light is a free agent, Logan Mankins wants out of town, and Stephen Neal retired.
Current NFL Comparison: Clay Matthews, Packers

29. Chicago Bears Corey Liuget DT Illinois
- Tommie Harris didn’t regain his top form after he regained his job for the Bears this season. Anthony Adams is solid, but doesn’t offer much pass-rush potential. Matt Toeaina impressed me with some solid flashes, but the Bears could still use a dominating presence in the middle. Corey Liuget would make the Bears defense, already good, even better. Liuget has a solid build with room to get bigger, and he really came on in 2010 with 12.5 TFL’s and 4.5 sacks. He fit’s the scheme and it’s an area of need. An offensive lineman like Danny Watkins could be a possibility as well.
Current NFL Comparison: Tank Johnson, Bengals

30. New York Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE Temple
- The Jets defense isn’t nearly as good as people make it out to be. It’s more smoke and mirrors than anything else. They don’t have a premier pass-rusher, and I think GM Mike Tannenbaum will hold some reservations with Justin Houston stemming from the Vernon Gholston pick. The Jets have an aging front with Shaun Ellis and Trevor Pryce. Wilkerson is one of those under the radar players from a MAC school. Wilkerson has excellent size and a good frame. He’ll be able to be a rotational player for a while, but he should be better than Mike DeVito in the long run. OLB is another area of need.
Current NFL Comparison: Marcus Spears, Cowboys

31. Pittsburgh Steelers Gabe Carimi T Wisconsin
- The Steelers could use a corner, but I think they finally have to address their offensive line. Losing Willie Colon hurt, and Flozell Adams isn’t he answer. Chris Kemoeatu is solid at LG, and Maurkice Pouncey is outstanding at C, but they don’t have a top-shelf tackle to protect Ben Roethlisberger, even if Max Starks comes back healthy. Carimi could play LT for the Steelers and help make their offensive line even better. One dark horse pick here could be Illinois ILB Martez Wilson to eventually replace James Farrior.
Current NFL Comparison: Andrew Whitworth, Bengals

32. Green Bay Packers Aaron Williams CB Texas
- GM Ted Thompson is always about drafting the best player available, regardless of position. Charles Woodson is nearing the twilight of his career and while Sam Shields was serviceable, the Packers can use someone to team with Tramon Williams in the future, especially if Woodson is going to get some snaps at FS. Williams has size and speed, and broke up 12 passes as a junior as many teams threw away from his side of the field. An offensive tackle like Derrick Sherrod or a defensive lineman such as Christian Ballard could be in order here.
Current NFL Comparison: Jabari Greer, Saints

Saturday, April 9, 2011

QB Special Part II: Mallett & Ponder



Picking up from where I left off with QB Special Part I, today I bring you Part II. Today I'll look at Arkansas' Ryan Mallett and Florida State's Christian Ponder.

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas

Tim Tebow was certainly the most polarizing prospect in the 2010 draft, and while I think Cam Newton has Ryan Mallett beat for that same title in the 2011 draft, Mallett is a close second. Mallett entered Michigan as a freshman a semester early, and got to play in several games for the injured Chad Henne in 2007. Lloyd Carr left the Michigan program and Rich Rodriguez came in, promising to bring the spread offense that made Pat White and Steve Slaton so good. Obviously Ryan Mallet, who stands at 6’7” and 253lbs, doesn’t exactly fit the spread QB mold. Mallett transferred to Arkansas and sat out for a season. Presumably, as this “Draft Winds” article will tell you, is where all the rumors about Mallett’s drug use come from, during his year off. There are also tales of him being rather aloof, while at Michigan, as one of “Draft Winds” author Chris Kouffman points out in this interview (apologies for it being on a Miami Dolphins show, but you’ll get to see the whole story on NFL Network’s “Path to the Draft” soon). The links here are to provide you with a more in-depth look at Mallett’s background, and from what the Universal Draft crew has found out, it appears that a lot of these rumors appear to be unsubstantiated, other than his public drunkenness arrest.

The Fit: Picking up from Part I of the Quarterback Special, you’ll remember I had Mallett slated to go to the Vikings at the 12th overall pick. Let me insert the caveat: I think Mallett goes in the first round provided there’s no underlying issues about drugs or his past that the NFL teams have access to. To be clear, many of the teams employ former private eye detectives and FBI and CIA operatives to do background work, and no I’m not kidding. That’s the price you pay when you’re going to invest millions on a college kid. Back on point, assuming Mallett’s background checks out, he’s got the best arm in this draft. While he does come form Bobby Petrino’s offense (see Brian Brohm, Louisville) I think he’ll adjust pretty quickly. He reminds me of Blaine Gabbert in the respect that he’s going to have to learn how to drop back and turn his back to the defense in play action scenarios. However, he’s got a better arm than Gabbert, and throws the deep ball better than any quarterback in this class.

With Minnesota, they have one of the best rush defenses in football. They don’t give up many plays. They can grind clock with Adrian Peterson, and as Brett Favre proved in 2009, they have talent to throw the ball downfield. Sidney Rice, when healthy, is as good a deep threat as there is in the league. Percy Harvin has major talent, and Visanthe Shiancoe has proven he can split the seam. All that crumbled when Favre fell apart in 2010. Minnesota’s left side of their offensive line (Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson) were both once dominant players. They’ve begun their decline. Phil Loadholt and Anthony Herrera on the right side are young, and improving, but they let Brett Favre get hit a lot. That’s my main concern with Mallett here - how does he handle taking punishment. If Minnesota can get improved line play, I really like the way Mallett’s talent can fit into that offense, and new coach Leslie Frazier has stated on multiple occasions that they’re looking for their quarterback of the future.

Strengths and Weaknesses: As I mentioned before, Mallett’s arm strength can’t be questioned, and he’s got decent accuracy, competing 64.7% this past year in Arkansas, up from 55.8% in 2009. Mallett did throw over 400 passes each year, over 100 more attempts than Cam Newton, for comparison in the SEC. Mallett can really throw the deep ball well, and gets pretty good velocity, as you can see in this Sports Science video. However, like Gabbert, Mallett looks very, very, mechanical when going through his drop back steps. I’d imagine he’ll have some issues coming away from the center and getting his feet set when asked to do it a lot in the pros. He’s got long strides, which slow him down, and if you watch some of his game footage, he really sits back on his back foot a lot relying on his arm to bail him out a lot. These flaws are all coachable, and I think it’s something he can do pretty quickly. I certainly think he can play from day one, unlike Newton and Gabbert, especially if he goes to a team like Minnesota who has a running game he can lean on in the early going.

Another thing I don’t like, is that Mallett doesn’t posses much athleticism. Everyone remembers the famous Tom Brady picture from the combine (insert link)…it’s just gross so I’ll only link it if you want to view it. What I’m getting at here is that Mallett looks even worse than Brady does. He’s not mobile, and he doesn’t move well within the pocket, which could spell trouble for him much like it did his predecessor at the University of Michigan, Chad Henne, who suffers from the same flaw.

Value: As I said, Mallett is a pretty polarizing prospect in this draft. I’m sure there’s a team or two that has him as their top rated prospect just as I’m sure there’s a team or two that has already deemed him undraftable. I certainly think he’s got talent - he’s got the prototypical size, arm strength, ability to hit the deep ball, and his accuracy is solid enough to build upon. Most of his game flaws are pretty coachable, and he can remove a lot of them just by getting into better physical shape. Yeah, there are some red flags that have been raised due to off the field “issues” let’s call them, whether they’re true or not.

While Mallett isn’t the poster boy of a franchise the way Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford were when they were coming out of school. If Mallett can put it all together and stays dedicated to staying out of whatever trouble he may or may not have gotten into in the past, I think he’s got the potential to be comparable to what Matt Ryan is with the Atlanta Falcons. I think teams like Minnesota, Miami, Jacksonville in the middle of the first round and even a team like Buffalo or Cincinnati cold tab him, if he lasts that long. Personally, I’d have to think long and hard about taking Mallett in the top ten, which is more to be said than what I think about Newton or Gabbert, but in the end, I’d probably pass on Mallett there as well. This would be doubly true if Andrew Luck were in this draft.


Christian Ponder, Florida State

The Fit: Let’s get something clear right off the bat - Christian Ponder is the most pro-ready quarterback prospect in the entire draft, not just in my top four. That said, Ponder’s been a late-riser in the draft game. Many projected him to be a 2nd or d3rd round pick based solely off his career for the Seminoles. He had an outstanding Senior Bowl week, and didn’t drop off at the combine. A smart guy who has already completed his MBA, he shows great leadership both on and off the field. Ponder’s been able to master Jimbo Fisher’s offensive schemes a Florida State. He’s very adept at play action, he’s got Aaron Rodgers-esque mobility, and he’s familiar with many pro-level passing concepts. While he’s got Rodgers-esque mobility and Chad Pennington-like Football IQ, his arm leaves something to be desired. He’s had shoulder surgery on his throwing arm and underwent two in-season surgeries on his throwing elbow as a senior. For a team that has a sound running game, and wants a good play action game off of it, Ponder is your guy. He’s been linked to Jacksonville for a while, and he’s met with the Dolphins multiple times. They own picks 15 and 16 in the first round. Buffalo and Cincinnati have done their due diligence on him if he does sneak into the second round.

However, I’ve got Ponder projected to go Jacksonville with the 16th overall pick. David Garrard, while solid, is getting older and Ponder just fits what Jacksonville is about. Like Garrard, Ponder possesses the mobility. With a strong running game led by Maurice Jones-Drew and a solid line led by underrated left tackle Eugene Monroe, Ponder should have opportunities to do some damage with weapons like Marcedes Lewis, Mike Thomas, and Mike Sims-Walker, provided Sims-Walker doesn’t leave via free agency. Jacksonville’s defense is solid, and they’ll keep games close, which is what you’d like to have with Ponder at the helm: someone who you can trust to manage the offense and make the big play when you need it.

Strengths and Weaknesses: Again, I’d like to defer you to the “Draft Winds” series as Richard Lines, a former Penn State and Oklahoma running back, gives you an in-depth look at Ponder’s game. There’s definitely some ups and downs in Ponder’s career, but he’s had some rotten luck as well. He first won the quarterback job in Tallahassee behind a very young offensive line and took some lumps. A lot of his talent at receiver graduated after 2009, so he was left with a lot of young guys as a senior. He’s the most experienced of the top four guys I’ve picked, having played in 35 games, and he’s thrown nearly 7,000 passes in his career at FSU. His completion percentage dipped in 2010 from 68.8% down to 61.5%, but that can be attributed to the loss of his older wide receivers.

If you go back to the video of him working out with Blaine Gabbert you’ll notice that Christian Ponder is very smooth, very fluid in his drop backs. He’s very good at play action, and he’s got the ability to crank a deep one here and there (link). As a decision-maker, he’s very good but he’ll get bit every once in a while with what I call “Pennington Syndrome” which means that Ponder will try and stick a throw into a tight window, but he doesn’t physically have the ability to make a particular throw and it ends up incomplete or intercepted.

I think it’s pretty hard for NFL teams to get an accurate read on Ponder because of all the circumstances surrounding his time at Florida State. Much like a Matt Cassell or Mark Sanchez who both played very little ball at USC, Ponder, despite having played 35 games, I don’t know if we’ve yet seen everything he’s capable of putting out there on the field. Cassel and Sanchez have both done well for themselves, Sanchez’s dating game notwithstanding, now that they’re fully in charge of their respective teams. I think Christian Ponder could do the same if he lands in the right situation. For example, if he lands with Cincinnati, I think that’d be disastrous for him. He’d have to carry the whole offense, which is under a new coordinator, Jay Gruden, and has a running back on the decline with an enigmatic #1 receiver in Chad Ochocinco. Definitely not the right spot for him. But, a team like Minnesota, Miami, or Jacksonville could really help the kid out a lot.

Value: I think, given that Ponder is the most pro-ready of these quarterbacks, I’d be most tempted to pick him in the top ten. However, due to his arm limitations, again, I’d have to pass (that makes it 0 for 4 for me in taking one of these guys in the top 10 of the first round). Ponder has to land in the right situation to be successful, but I definitely would want my team to land him over Newton and Gabbert. If a team does get him in round two, I think that’s an absolute boon of a pick, as he can be pressed into action before the other three. I certainly think that he’s capable of giving a team the career of Chad Pennington, which if not for injuries, would’ve been pretty darn good. Let’s also note that Pennington’s primary weakness was throwing the deep ball, but he was intelligent, and for a time, was the NFL’s all-time leader in completion percentage.

Ponder definitely has the tools to work with and could be a very good starting quarterback. I think a solid comparison for him would be Pennington’s brain, Aaron Rodgers’ mobility, and maybe someone like Carson Palmer’s arm post elbow injury. It’s not an outstanding mix, but it’s better than some of the current starters in the NFL today.

Overview

While I wouldn’t personally draft any of the top 4 quarterbacks in the first round if I were the GM of an NFL team, I think there’s some talent to work with. I’d rate Cam Newton as having the highest potential of the 4, but he’s also the most likely to be a bust in my opinion. Ryan Mallett would be the guy I’d want for my team if I were the GM, but it’d be tough to take him over Christian Ponder. Ultimately, I think there’d be a “throwaway year” or two, with Mallett, Gabbert, and Newton, but the payoff could all be higher than Ponder’s. That said, where would these guys really be rated if Andrew Luck were in this class? I certainly don’t think there’d be one in the top 5, but I guess we’ll never know.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

The QB Special Part I: Newton & Gabbert


In today’s NFL you must have good quarterback play to win. Look at some of the recent Super Winning teams and their signal-callers. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning; all of them were first round draft picks, save for Drew Brees who was the 32nd overall pick in 2001, when there were only 31 teams in the NFL prior to the Houston Texans joining the league in 2002. All of those names are typically considered top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL. Eli Manning is the only one you might be able to argue, but he knocked off one of, if not the best teams in NFL History, and consistently has the Giants in playoff contention.

The NFL is even more starved for good quarterback play given the number of college programs switching to spread offenses, the scrutiny on quarterbacks has become even more ridiculous. See Tim Tebow, 2010 NFL Draft. This year’s draft is no different with several teams picking in the top half of the first round, including Carolina, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, and Washington in the top 10 alone. Throw in Denver if you really believe new football operations boss, the legendary John Elway, isn’t just trying to throw teams off the Broncos trail by scheduling meetings with Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, and Ryan Mallett despite having Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, and Brady Quinn presently on his roster. I think, I repeat, I think Brett Favre is finally done, and Minnesota has no plans to have Travaris Jackson take over the keys to the franchise. My very own Miami Dolphins have let it be known they want to bring in competition for incumbent Chad Henne. Jacksonville has also spent time with quarterbacks in the pre-draft process, and has been linked quite a bit to Florida State’s Christian Ponder. That’s 11 of 16 teams in the top half of the first round with questions, albeit some are milder than others, at the quarterback position – more than a third of the league.

In the 2010 draft, only two quarterbacks went in the first round: Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow. We saw three in 2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman. So, that’s a grand total of five in the past two years and seven in the past three years counting Atlanta’s Matt Ryan and Baltimore’s Joe Flacco from the 2008 draft. This year, the general consensus seems to be that at least three quarterbacks – Auburn’s Cam Newton, Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert and Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett – seem set to go in the first round. The aforementioned Christian Ponder has been a hot name in the draftnik world, and many think he might go in the first as well, getting heavy interest from Miami and Jacksonville, and plenty of rumors are swirling that top 10 teams, such as Washington, may try and trade back and tab him in the latter part of round one.

If you believe ESPN’s Adam Schefter, and his track record seems to be pretty good, he’s been calling Auburn’s Cam Newton to be drafted first overall by the Carolina Panthers for a while now. Let’s not forget Schefter pegged the Rams taking Sam Bradford over Ndamukong Suh last year about this time. So, with Newton pegged to go #1, I’d like to take a look at my top 4 quarterbacks, and ask, are they really worth the first round? Or, are they just a product of need? As I’ve discussed already, the demand outweighs the supply.

To start off, let’s get my top 4 quarterbacks straightened out. In no particular order, they are Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, and Christian Ponder. Todd McShay’s (Todd McFraud, as I call him, though I’ve seen McFaketan as well, which is pretty good) love children Jake Locker and Andy Dalton don’t make my list. However, even those two have been linked to the late first round, with Seattle in particular. I don’t think I’d touch either of them before round three personally. Jake Locker’s got everything you want, except accuracy. His career completion percentage at Washington is 54% so let’s throw him out. Andy Dalton comes from Justin Fuente’s offense at TCU, which doesn’t really lend itself to any NFL system aside from the West Coast offense, which has probably triggered the Seattle rumors. I’ll defer you to the Draft Winds article on him in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

Draft Winds is a weekly column geared toward the Miami Dolphins compiled by the staff of Universal Draft. The staff consists of Chris Kouffman, Richard Lines, and Simon Clancy, and their work has been mentioned nationally in Sports Illustrated, by SI’s Peter King, Dan Patrick, and they’ll be appearing on NFL Network’s “Path to the Draft” show to discuss Ryan Mallett – more on that later. Let’s be clear, they definitely know their stuff.

So, now that I’ve eliminated Locker and Dalton, onto the top four. My mock draft will be unveiled soon, but as of right now – Tuesday – and this is still subject to change, I’ve got the quarterbacks getting drafted as follows:

Cam Newton to Carolina – 1st overall
Blaine Gabbert to San Francisco – 7th overall
Ryan Mallett to Minnesota – 12th overall
Christian Ponder to Jacksonville – 16th overall

This probably isn’t what you were expecting if you’ve read mock drafts from around the Internet. My goal with this is to explain why I think each player will go where I have them slotted; discuss their strengths and weaknesses; and give you my opinion on whether or not they’ll represent good value in the NFL.

Cam Newton, Auburn

The Fit: I’ve got him pegged to the Panthers for several reasons. First, you have to respect what Adam Schefter’s heard from his NFL circles – he’s very well connected and projecting him to Carolina says a lot. Secondly, Carolina owner Jerry Richardson said shortly after the regular season that he’d take Stanford’s Andrew Luck if he entered the draft. Luck did not, but it still says something that the owner has a genuine interest in a quarterback a year after selecting Jimmy Clausen in the second round. That leads me to point number three. Coach John Fox is gone. Ron Rivera is in, and when coaching changes occur, they usually like to bring in their own guys and their own players. Ron Rivera has a unique situation where he can bring in his own guy at QB, presumably Cam Newton, while having another youngster in Jimmy Clausen on his roster. That gives you some room to operate with, and it reminds me of the situation the Chargers faced when they drafted Philip Rivers while having Drew Brees on the roster. If you’ll remember, Brees’ first three seasons in the NFL weren’t anything spectacular. Obviously Clausen hasn’t been around for three season’s as Brees was, but the situation is similar. Carolina, who is most likely to be losing one of their most recognizable players, RB DeAngelo Williams, and has been rumored to be shopping aging WR Steve Smith, could definitely draw fans back with the polarizing Newton. This pick makes a lot of sense, provided you think Cam Newton will be successful at the NFL level.

Strengths and Weaknesses: Personally, I have a hard time believing Cam Newton will have success at the NFL level. Initially. All the guy’s done is win everywhere he goes from high school, to Blinn Junior College, and onto a Heisman Winning year at Auburn where he brought home the BCS National Championship. For an in-depth analysis on Newton, I’d like to defer you to the article in the “Draft Winds” series composed by the Universal Draft guys in the Sun-Sentinel. Here’s the link.

As I said, very thorough, outstanding research and excellent work – their stuff is outstanding and I look forward to their article every week. Back to Newton; yeah he took some laptops while at Florida. Yes, he referred to himself as an “icon”. True, he does come from Gus Malzahn’s spread offense at Auburn where he was generally asked to make one or two reads and then run – it won’t be that simple in the NFL. However…

Value: Cam Newton has the 2nd best arm of these top 4 quarterbacks in the draft, trailing only Ryan Mallett. Newton, despite only playing one year in the always tough Southeastern Conference, registered a completion percentage of 66.1% in 280 attempts, which is a lot higher than you’d expect, and higher than Vince Young’s (the prospect most people compare Newton to) outstanding 2005 season; Newton had more touchdown passes as well. Newton is the classic “Boom or Bust” prospect, and his ceiling is certainly higher than any of the other three quarterbacks I’ve mentioned. His floor is a lot lower though as well.

While on most total draft boards, Alabama DT Marcel Dareus is the consensus number one ranked player – both offense or defense – I have hard time not seeing Cam Newton’s name being called by the Panthers (assuming they don’t try to trade the 1st overall pick, which is very unlikely). Carolina can afford to take this risk because they still have 2010 second round pick Jimmy Clausen on the roster. While Cam Newton is certainly the more gifted player, he doesn’t come a pro-style offense like Clausen, and I anticipate it will take Newton some time to get acclimated to the pro game. Ultimately I think Newton will take several weeks to get ready, but ultimately, if Carolina selects him, I expect him to play at some point in the 2011 season. And based on what Judge Nelson said and hinted at yesterday, there’s going to be a 2011 season. I think that Cam Newton’s career is going to be very interesting to watch, and will be somewhat better than what Vince Young’s done so far (Young’s record is a solid 30-17). That said, if I’m a GM, I don’t pull the trigger on Newton unless I already have a veteran quarterback to develop him behind, especially in round one.

Blaine Gabbert, Missouri

Gabbert’s been projected by many to be the first overall pick in the draft. Let me make one thing clear – I don’t think he’s worth that at all. Ask yourself, who would the Carolina Panthers have taken had Stanford’s Andrew Luck declared? Trick question, they said they’d take Luck right after the regular season, and if you believe the draft rumor mills, Gabbert only declared this year because Luck didn’t. To expound upon that, if Luck were in this class, I’d have a hard time valuing Newton and Gabbert in the top 10 due to the influx of talented defensive players. But alas, Luck will have to wait until 2012, or 2013 since he’s only a junior.

The Fit: I’ve currently got Blaine Gabbert slated to slide to the 49ers who own the 7th overall pick. Jim Harbaugh needs a quarterback out there with Alex and Troy Smith proving they’re not capable of driving that team to the playoffs despite having some outstanding weapons. Of the quarterbacks I’ve selected for this mock, this might be the one I’m most inclined to change. Gabbert’s completion percentage on throws traveling further than 15 yards is a measly 38% - not good.

I think a lot of the projections basing Gabbert going first overall over Newton are there for a few reasons. First, unless something pops up in the next three weeks he’s got no off-field issues that I’m aware of, which is a strike against Newton for normally conservative owner Jerry Richardson. Secondly, by all accounts Newton’s individual team interviews have gone very well, but I hear that Gabbert has been exceptional, especially in chalk-talk sessions (X’s & O’s); more on that later. Lastly, Gabbert’s learning curve, while steeper than Mallett’s and Ponder’s is probably less steep than Newton’s, meaning Gabbert will likely see the field sooner. This assuming that neither is thrown directly into the fire, which I would vehemently argue that any team that drafts them not do despite the successes of other rookie quarterbacks in recent years.

Now, for San Francisco, new coach Jim Harbaugh was fortunate enough to have Andrew Luck at Stanford. Luck is the total package of accuracy, arm strength, intelligence, athleticism, leadership, intelligence, and intelligence (did that on purpose). Gabbert has a lot of those same qualities, but not to the level of Luck. But, his game is similar in the fact that he’s smart, accurate underneath (Harbaugh runs a West Coast style predicated on short routes, crossing routes, hitches, slants, quick outs, etc. all of which were staples in Gary Pinkel’s offense at Missouri). Thus, Gabbert is more familiar with this than any other quarterback. If Gabbert can learn the drops, playaction steps, and fakes necessary to go with the Power I running game that Harbaugh will instill, he’ll have some success. Strengths and Weaknesses: Hailing from Gary Pinkel’s spread system from Missouri, as Alen mentioned in our guru interview earlier in the week; Missouri’s offense is predicated on short routes with vertical tags associated with them. For example, see this play at about the 1:00 minute mark, you’ll notice a route called “hitch n’ go”. There’s the vertical tag. In this video, Mizzou is in the redzone, but this is their concept all over the field, due to Gabbert’s deficiency in deep ball accuracy.

Another thing that will stunt Gabbert’s development early is his transition to taking snaps under center. The 3 step, 5 step, 5 quick, 7 step, and play actions will take time to learn as Gabbert came mostly from the shotgun. In this clip, you can watch Gabbert and FSU’s Christian Ponder doing the same drop drills. Christian Ponder, who comes from a pro style offense looks very fluid, very natural. You can tell Gabbert is thinking about his drop steps, as opposed to the “catch, rock, and throw” he was accustomed to at Missouri. Though Gabbert says his drops feel more natural in the video, it’s still not where you’d like it to be. This will take some more time, but ultimately I think he can get it down.

Where Gabbert will succeed depends on what system he’s drafted into. If it’s a place like San Francisco, where he can use his successful short and intermediate game, it will help his development. He’s got a decent amount of starting experience with 26 games, and has 933 attempts in 31 career games. While that’s not the kind of starting production that historically has succeeded in the NFL, it is close. He’s certainly got some things to work on, but his floor is higher than Cam Newton’s.

Value: Gabbert is a “safer” prospect than Cam Newton, but I’m not so sure he’ll be as good as Newton. His completion percentage is lower, which is surprising as he played in the notoriously wide open Big 12 Conference. I think it’s also safe to value Gabbert as a top 12 player in this draft, though personally, I don’t think I’d pull the trigger on him in the top 10 of the first round. I think he’s definitely a system player, and if you ask him to become the next Ben Roethlisberger, you might be in trouble. His deep-ball accuracy isn’t anywhere close, and he’s not as physical when he takes off in the run game. Strangely enough, he reminds me somewhat of Mark Sanchez, with more mobility, but not quite as good of an arm. Say what you want about Sanchez, but the guy is clutch.

I think Gabbert has some of the tools to be successful in the NFL, and he’s go the right temperament to develop some of the ones he lacks. Again, I have to stress that he’s a system guy in my opinion, and that I wouldn’t take him in the top 10.

I'll have Part II up soon with coverage on Ryan Mallett and Christian Ponder.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

KD's Draft Guru Interview



For those that don’t know me, despite being born in and living 23 of my 25 years in Cincinnati, Ohio, and working for their only player inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, I am not a Bengals fan. I am a Miami Dolphins fan. I have been since Thanksgiving Day 1993 when the Dolphins, sans Dan Marino who was out with an Achilles injury, beat the Cowboys (thank you Leon Lett), in Dallas 16 – 14. Every boy in my 2nd grade class had a Dallas Cowboys Starter jacket – hell, I did too. I got rid of it after that game and I have religiously followed the Dolphins ever since. Needless to say, Miami was 9-2 after that Cowboys game, and promptly loss their last 5 games to miss the playoffs. I suffered through that. Dan Marino’s last game was played on my 15th birthday – a 62-7 loss at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2nd round of the playoffs that I thought I’d blocked from my memory. I guess not. I made it through the Cam Cameron 1-15 season and joined a Dolphins message board that year. I’m a pretty frequent visitor, and through the forums there, I came to know Alen Dumonjic, a then 18-year old who knew more about football than anyone else I’ve ever met, including me, and my friends would tell you that I myself probably know way too much as it is.

Alen is truly a student of the game and could tell you about the intricacies of Bill Walsh’s West Coast Offense (which was practiced when Walsh was a Bengals assistant, and perfected by some guy named Montana out in San Francisco), to the Air Coryell offense run by Dan Fouts and the Chargers, to the Dolphins “Wildcat” offense, which has been around since the 1940s – known as the Single Wing then - contrary to what ESPN would have you believe. But I digress. One of the things that many of the forum visitors turn to Alen for is his knowledge of the draft. Alen’s been known to frequent the East-West Shrine Bowl practices, and his knowledge never disappoints.

For more on the X’s and O’s of the game, check out his blog – it’s a must read for football junkies – www.footballpressbox.blogspot.com – thank me later.

Alen was kind enough to answer some draft-related questions for us now that the draft is only 22 days away (boy that looming Labor Issue makes it seem further away doesn’t it?). Here’s what he had to say:

TGTS: As someone who follows college football and the draft process very closely, what factors do you often look at when grading your prospects? Is it program pedigree, the player's makeup, 40 times, team interviews, or is it a combination of all things?

AD: First you have your positional analysis. You look at different things for each position obviously but in general, I look for the makeup of the player, I look how he handles the team, how he handles his duties at his position and I look at what scheme or philosophy he comes from and then last of all, I'll look at what he's faced. 

TGTS: This year's draft is somewhat top-heavy with quarterbacks in Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, both of whom come from more open, spread offenses that are prevalent in college football. Does that make those prospects harder to evaluate than QBs who come from a pro-style offense such as Christian Ponder and Andrew Luck? 

Yes, they are a bit harder to grade because of the offense they come from. Blaine Gabbert comes from a very wide open and simplistic offense that relies on comeback routes and hitches that are tagged onto vertical routes. They really like to spread themselves out and create mismatches by using the receiving threat all over the field. Christian Ponder is viewed as a pro-style quarterback because he worked a lot under center and he comes from an offense that is a lot of 3 and 5 step game with triangle reads; read one side of the field and work it. That's a stepping stone in the development of the quarterback and then from there, you can read the entire field when you get good. Guys like Andrew Luck can do everything. He's really a fantastic quarterback because he sees the field so well and has such great control over the offense.  

TGTS: Obviously many people know some of the big names in the draft, such as Ingram, Newton, Fairley, Peterson, etc. Who are some of your mid-later round prospects that you have your eye on?

AD: Prospects that I have my eye on in the mid to later rounds include quarterback Greg McElroy, quarterback Ben Chappell, running back Delone Carter, running back Jamie Harper, running back Bilal Powell, running back Evan Royster, running back Damien Berry, wide receiver Vincent Brown, wide receiver Ryan Whalen, wide receiver Dane Sanzenbacher, wide receiver Aldrick Robinson. 

On the defensive side of the ball, nose tackle Sione Fua, linebacker Mark Herzlich, cornerback Davon House, cornerback Brandyn Thompson, cornerback Kendrick Burney, cornerback/safety Marcus GIlchrist, safeties Eric Hagg and Jaiqwuan Jarrett. 

A lot of the guys I list above have some good talent that can be improved upon and made into contributing players. McElroy is well known but Indiana's Ben Chappell has flown under the radar. His decision making is sometimes in question but he sees the field very well. Running back Bilal Powell reminds me of James Starks up in Green Bay as they have the same running style. Wide receivers Vincent Brown, Ryan Whalen and Dane Sanzenbacher are all guys who are the cookie-cutter route runners who understand the game and have good hands. All three work hard and are overachievers. Aldrick Robinson has talent but he needs to continue to work hard. 

Defensively, Sione Fua is somewhat reminiscent of Aubrayo Franklin out in San Francisco. Mark Herzlich is well known and has a lot of talent. How far has he come from his recovery of cancer? How will it affect him at the next level? For a guy who works so hard, you might be tempted to take a chance on him somewhere in round four or five. Cornerback Davon House has flown under the radar because he's out in New Mexico State but he's a quality talent that has a ton of upside. He's durable and is tough. Big fan of his. Brandyn Thompson is somewhat forgotten because he's not all that big but he's got some Asante Samuel qualities in his game. I think he may surprise some people. Burney is a Cover 2 Buc corner; a hard corner who can play nickel and cover the flats. Gilchrist is versatile while Jarrett and Hagg are smart, tough players. 

TGTS: You're the Carolina Panthers...the GM has mandated you draft a defensive player, so who do you take between Marcel Dareus, Patrick Peterson, Von Miller, Nick Fairley, or someone else and why?

AD: I select Marcel Dareus out of Alabama because he's the best player from that group. He's a hard working defensive tackle that has versatility in the way that he can play most positions on the line and he's a damn good player. He's explosive, tough, can play the run and as I said, is versatile. In some ways, he is similar to Richard Seymour but he's not as dominant as Seymour is/was. 

Nick Fairley has too many questions and not enough on his resume for me. Patrick Peterson is a good cornerback that has a lot of natural talent but he needs to work on his technique. He can't forever rely on his natural talents. Von Miller is a very talented player but I think that he needs work as a pass rusher. He's going to be a good player in this league and he will make someone happy but I'd rather have Dareus.

TGTS: Some teams, like the Eagles and Patriots, who have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds, often trade down and/or trade players for future picks. What do you think of this strategy, and does it help or hinder teams like that when you have so many rookies?

AD: I am a big fan of the strategy because I think you need to stick to your board. If the player(s) you don't want are there, move the pick. Teams sometimes end up forcing the selection and are not happy with the outcome. The Patriots have a strict board and a smaller one than other teams. Runs about 90 players and Belichick likes to use the old Jimmy Johnson strategy of picking out guys from the draft that he likes and then if the guy is not there, get rid of the pick. 

I think if you keep the picks, it does hinder your team because you end up being very young. To be successful in the NFL, you need to have a good blend of veterans and younger guys. That way the young guys can learn and are not pressured into the lineup but are still contributors. 

TGTS: We saw the Packers win a Super Bowl with a RB drafted in the 6th round; Arian Foster led the league and rushing and went undrafted, as did LeGarrette Blount. Do you think teams are abandoning taking RBs early because it's an easy position to fix, or is there additional value in drafting someone highly - such as guys like Mark Ingram and Mikel Leshoure figure to be this year?

AD: I think it’s a little bit of both. The running back position is one that has a short career and a lot of the players at that position can be replaced when you have a strong offensive line. Taking a running back high, like Ingram or LeShoure, has value because some of the running backs you take high likely have a trait that separates them from other tailbacks. For example, instincts, the ability to find the cutback lane at a higher rate than others, the ability to hit the homerun. The homerun is not something that's common in the NFL so when you have a guy that can break it every now and then, you consider taking him higher than you would other running backs. Guys like Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson fit that criteria. 

TGTS: Aside from Andrew Luck, give us 5 potential draft prospects you're looking forward to seeing in the 2012 draft.

AD:

Seniors only list

1. Ryan Lindley, QB, San Diego St.
2. Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma
3. Jared Crick, DT, Nebraska
4. Tank Carder, LB, TCU
5. Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
Potential underclassmen

1. Matt Barkley, QB, USC
2. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
3. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
4. Chase Thomas, LB, Stanford
5. Josh Robinson, CB, UCF

A big thanks goes out to Alen for helping us with this interview. I’ll have some more about the NFL Draft coming up soon, including my take on the Big 4 QBs in the draft – Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton, and Christian Ponder (no, Jake Locker is NOT one, sorry Todd McShay), as well as a mock draft coming up towards the weekend.