KD's Top 10 College Football Games for 2011

Sorry for the brief hiatus the past two days, we should be back on track now. It's better late than never, but my Top 10 College Football Games of 2011 are finally here. Obviously college football rivalries happen with pretty much weekly regularity, and a few of them happened to make my list. That being said, you won't see a game like Michigan vs. Ohio State on the list, as I tried to pick the best games that will occur this year, meaning that both teams should be good and that the game will have significant bearing on the BCS standings. I don't see Michigan vs. Ohio State fitting those characteristics this year.

Now, after reviewing my games, it's pretty tough to determine an exact 1-10 order. Obviously teams records will change and may knock the game down slightly in the rankings, but on paper, prior to the season these are the marquee matchups. I've listed them in the order that they will occur on the calendar from earliest to latest. I've listed the teams, their ranks, game date, location, and will have a rundown of each team. I'll list a key player to watch on each team as well, and if it is a rivlary game, you'll have the moniker associated with it, or one cleverly made up by yours truly. Here we go.

Please note these rankings reflect ESPN's Mark Schlabach's Way Too Early Top 25 rankings as published January 11, 2011 to keep consistent with my prior college football articles. That, and rankings haven't been released yet.

1) #3 Oregon vs. #4 LSU
Date: September 3rd
Location: Cowboys Stadium, Dallas Texas
Moniker: The NCAA Probe Bowl

Preview: Just yesterday, LSU got hit with a year's probation and sanctions for recruiting violations centered on former junior college recruit Akiem Hicks and former assistant D.J. McCarthy. Oregon is currently being probed by the NCAA for the recruitment of LaMichael James and Lache Seastrunk, and their relationships and financial dealings with Will Lyles and Baron Flanery. Oregon's high-powered offense will matchup with LSU's retooled defense in a Pac-12 vs. SEC showdown. LaMichael James will be suspended for the matchup due to an altercation with his girlfriend last year, so the Ducks will have to rely on Darron Thomas and Kenyon Barner. LSU has some quarterback issues, and Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee will probably both see time, so expect the Tigers to rely on the running of Spencer Ware.

Key Players: I'll have to go with Barner and Ware here. Both of them should carry their teams in this game. Barner is a dynamic weapon as a kick returner, running back, and they've put him in the slot and out wide at times. He should see action all over the field. Ware, a converted quarterback is a pounder at 5'11" 225lbs, and he'll see a lot of work.

Predicted Winner: I like LSU's defense and their ability to grind the clock in this game to slow down the Ducks. Without LaMichael James, the Tigers will be able to key on Kenyon Barner, and Oregon's top two receivers from last year are both gone. The SEC takes this one.

2) #1 Oklahoma at #7 Florida State
Date: September 17th
Location: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahasse, Florida.
Moniker: The Trail of Tears Game

Preview: These two teams have hooked up in an inter-conference matchup the past two years. Oklahoma has more talent coming back than any other team in the country; they have 29 players with starting experience returning, but it centers around two guys: QB Landry Jones and WR Ryan Broyles. Expect Oklahoma's offense to put up yardage and points through the air. Their defense should be fine, although the passing of the late Austin Box will hurt them in the middle. The Noles are looking to replace Christian Ponder at QB, but they have a slew of talented running backs and E.J. Manuel does have some starting experience. The Noles defense, in particular their outstanding CB tandem of Xavier Rhodes and Greg Reid will be tested early and often in this matchup.

Key Players: For Oklahoma, I'll go with ILB Tom Wort. He'll be pressed into starting action again with the loss of Box, and the British Import will have to be on his toes against the Noles ground game athleticism of E.J. Manuel. For the Noles, I've to take Manuel. He'll have to grow up fast as this is each team's second game of the season, and Oklahoma has far more players and plays in place than the Seminoles do.

Predicted Winnner: Oklahoma won this matchup last year in Norman 47-17, and it's hard to not take them again here. Florida State won't have Christian Ponder, and Oklahoma simply has too much firepower for the Noles. Even though it's in Chief Osceola's back yard, the Sooners are too much in this contest.

3) #2 Alabama at #23 Florida
Date: October 1st
Location: The Swamp (Ben Hill Griffin Stadium), Gainesville, Florida
Moniker: SEC Bare-Knuckle Game

Preview: While it's not a traditional rivalry game for Florida like they have againts Georgia or Florida State, nor Alabama with Auburn, these two teams were at the zenith of college football in the 2000s. They met in the SEC Championship Game in 2009 and 2010, with each team winning it once and moving onto the National title. Florida will have to replace Urban Meyere with Will Muschamp, who will instill a more traditional offense for the Gators. Alabama will have to deal with losing Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, and Greg McElroy on offense. Alabama has plenty of talent coming back, and their defense should be very good as some key guys decided to return. Florida lost a lot in the secondary via the draft and Janoris Jenkins getting kicked out of school. This is Alabama's toughest early season test, and it could derail their National Championship aspirations.

Key Players: For Alabama, a lot of this season hinges on RB Trent Richardson's ability to shoulder the full load at RB. For the Gators, give me head coach Will Muschamp. This is Florida's big test this year, and Muschamp, a former Saban assistant with LSU and the Miami Dolphins, will have to figure out which QB to go with to take on the best coach in College Football.

Predicted Winner: I'll take the Crimson Tide in a closer game than what many will be expecting.

4) #19 Nebraska at #12 Wisconsin
Date: October 1st
Location: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisconsin
Moniker: The Big 10 Intra-Squad Scrimmage Game

Preview: This game will be quite confusing as Nebraska and Wisconsin's uniforms are nearly identical, save for their helmets. Okay, so my made up moniker isn't great, but even the teams are pretty similar. Both have big lines, solid defenses, like to run the ball, and now, with Wisconsin's addition of QB Russell Wilson, both teams have outstanding quarterbacks. Taylor Martinez and Russell Wilson should both be very fun to watch. Both can throw, both are very mobile, and they both make good decisions, and despite the tradition of both teams, I don't think this will be the type of plodding, low-scoring game Big 10 fans are accustomed to.

Key Players: I'll stick right with Martinez and Wilson here. Both teams will have solid defenses, though each squad will have a significant amount of graduated and drafted talent to replace, so I think this game could be a higher scoring affair. Whichever QB makes fewer mistakes will win the game.

Predicted Winner: Badger fans will be jumping around in Madison as they have a more reliable running game to go with the outstanding game Russell Wilson brings to the table.

5) #10 Ohio State at #19 Nebraska
Date: October 8th
Location: Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Nebraska
Moniker: The Big 10 Blue Bloods of College Football Game

Preview: In what would've been the first game back for Jim Tressell, Terrelle Pryor, and the rest of the suspended Buckeyes, the Ohio State team will look a little different. I can't imagine them going 5-0 in the stretch of games prior to this one, and they'll be going into a very hostile environment for the first time on the season. Nebraska comes into this game off a road trip to Wisconsin, which in my scenario, they will lose, so this has the makings of a great game for two of the blue bloods of College Football. This should make for the start of an interesting inter-division rivlary in the Big 10, however, the Leaders and Legends names are just completely stupid. Fail.

Key Players: For Ohio State, they'll be getting back Daniel "Boom" Herron, their best runner who can help take the pressure off of whomever their QB is at this juncture. Herron runs hard for his size, and is probably Ohio State's best weapon offensively as DeVier Posey will be making his return as well. For Nebraska, give me DT/DE Jared Crick. He played with Ndamukong Suh, and he's very good in his own right against both the run and pass.

Predicted Winner: Score one for Big Red and the Huskers here. Ohio State is in disarray and it'll be just the first game back for the suspended players still on the roster. Inexperienced QB play in this environment? Ain't gonna happen Buckeyes.

6) #4 LSU at #2 Alabama
Date: November 5th
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Moniker: The Saban Bowl

Preview: In what could be the game the determines the SEC West's representative in the SEC Championship Game, the Tigers battle the Crimson Tide in a huge battle. LSU won the most recent battle in 2010 winning 24-21, but Alabama leads the all-time series 45-24-5. The Saban Bowl might be the best game all season this year. Alabama will have a high-powered running attack and a stout defense, much like LSU, so this could be that type of low-scoring, plodding game (yes, even in the SEC) that traditional football fans like me love. I think the Crimson Tide will have more overall talent, and if QB A.J. McCarron develops well, they should be the better team as long as Trent Richardson is still healthy.

Key Players: A pair of linebackers here. For Alabama, I'll give you Dont'a Hightower, and for LSU I'll give you Karnell Hatcher. Both inside backers will have to be on their games to stop Trent Richardson and Spencer Ware as a lot of the offense will come on the ground in this battle.

Predicted Winner: Hard to go against the Tide at home. I think their defense is better, and they'll have revenge on their minds after losing in Baton Rouge last year.

7) #3 Oregon at #9 Stanford
Date: November 12th
Location: Stanford Stadium, Palo Alto, California
Moniker: The Pac 12 QB Battle

Preview: There's two potential Heisman candidates playing in this game with Stanford's Andrew Luck and Oregon's LaMichael James. This game could potentially be a knockout for a BCS Championship Game representative. Stanford's lone loss last year was to the Ducks and Andrew Luck came back for another year to graduate with his recruiting class and to make a run at a Pac 12 title. Luck will have to carry the Cardinal this year as he's losing some talent on offense, most notably Ryan Whalen and Owen Marecic, along with 3 starters on the O-line. Oregon, if they get past LSU in their opener, will have this game marked as the only contest between them and back-to-back undefeated regular seasons.

Key Players: Luck and Oregon QB Darron Thomas will be the key factors in this matchup. The Cardinal will be at home, in probably their biggest home game in a long time. Thomas will have to lead the Ducks attack into hostile territory, but it should make for a very exciting game to watch.

Predicted Winner: I'll take Andrew Luck and Stanford in a revenge game here. Stanford is pretty underrated, and if there's a next Peyton Manning, it's Andrew Luck.

8) #8 Arkansas at #4 LSU
Date: November 25th
Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rogue, Louisiana
Moniker: The Battle for the Golden Boot

Preview: Tyler Wilson takes over the reins at QB for the Razorbacks after Ryan Mallett graduated. The Hogs have a lot of talent coming back with Knile Davis and Dennis Johnson at RB, Joe Adams, Greg Childs, and Colbi Hamilton coming back at receiver. Wilson played very well in spot duty last year, including a 300 yard game. He also played well in the Spring Game and has some Razorback fans already comparing him to Ryan Mallett. LSU will have been through the wringer coming into this game having played Oregon, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama, so this is the last hurdle in their season, and they could be really banged up.

Key Players: Wilson and Jordan Jefferson, the two QBs in this game, will be the key. Arkansas will probably be able to put up some points on the LSU defense, so it'll be up to Jefferson to keep the Tigers in the game. LSU kicked a ton of field goals last year in the redzone, so they'll really need to convert touchdown opportunities in this game to keep pace with the Hogs.

Predicted Winner: I'll go with an upset here and take the Razorbacks despite them having to go into Death Valley. I think they just have too much talent on offense and can outscore LSU in the end.

9) #2 Alabama at #17 Auburn
Date: November 26th
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Alabama
Moniker: The Iron Bowl

Preview: Alabama nearly wrecked Auburn's National Championship season last year, but Cam Newton powered the Tigers comeback. In Tuscaloosa. Auburn nearly derailed Alabama's perfect season in 2010, in Auburn. So, something's going to give here. Obviously, without Cam Newton, Auburn's going to be lacking on offense a little bit. This game is Alabama's last hurdle to the SEC Championship Game, so it could be for all the marbles for the Tide. Last year's freshman phenom Michael Dyer will have to take up a bigger work load along with Onterio McCaleb. If Trent Richardson is still running hard, he'll be on his way to a potential Heisman campaign.

Key Players: Michael Dyer and Trent Richardson. This rivalry game has been pretty close the past few years, and I expect no different this year even though the Crimson Tide have more total talent. Richardson and Dyer are both big backs who run hard, and will have to produce in this game to keep the chains moving and put points up on the board.

Predicted Winner: Roll Tide. Alabama's going to be too strong for the Tigers this year, but I expect the game will be closer than most people think. It's a pure hatred game here, and if recent history is any indicator, it should be very entertaining to watch. At the very least, it's a good way to work off your turkey hangover the day after Thanksgiving.

10) #1 Oklahoma at #6 Oklahoma State
Date: December 3rd
Location: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma
Moniker: Bedlam

Preview: We close out the Top 10 Games of 2011 with Bedlam. The rivalry between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is a long-running one that dates back to the Big 8 Conference with the Sooners dominating the all-time series with an 81-17-7 record, including 8 straight wins since 2002. In fact, OK State's last two wins came in 2001 and 2002 when Oklahoma was ranked 4th and 3rd respectively while the Cowboys were unranked. This year figures to be different as both teams could potentially be in the top 10 and this could be the game that determines if Oklahoma's going to head to the BCS Championship Game. Oklahoma State has a deadly QB - WR combo of its own in Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, but they'll have to replace the departed Kendall Hunter in the ground game. I'd expect this to be a shootout with Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles on the other side.

Key Players: Blackmon and Broyles. Perhaps two of the best three receivers in College Football, with respect to the outstanding Alshon Jeffery, these two should light up the scoreboard. Pay special attention to Blackmon especially, as he absolutley abused Nebraska's Prince Amukamara last year, and in my opinion, will carry a higher grade than Georgia's A.J. Green did when he enters the NFL Draft.

Predicted Winner: It's hard to buck history here, so I'll have to take the Sooners in a wild shootout in Stillwater. And if I were a betting man, I'd bet on Oklahoma to take on Alabama in the BCS National Chamipionship Game, which would be one heck of a matchup for all College Football Fans.

QB Special Part II: Mallett & Ponder

Picking up from where I left off with QB Special Part I, today I bring you Part II. Today I'll look at Arkansas' Ryan Mallett and Florida State's Christian Ponder.

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas

Tim Tebow was certainly the most polarizing prospect in the 2010 draft, and while I think Cam Newton has Ryan Mallett beat for that same title in the 2011 draft, Mallett is a close second. Mallett entered Michigan as a freshman a semester early, and got to play in several games for the injured Chad Henne in 2007. Lloyd Carr left the Michigan program and Rich Rodriguez came in, promising to bring the spread offense that made Pat White and Steve Slaton so good. Obviously Ryan Mallet, who stands at 6’7” and 253lbs, doesn’t exactly fit the spread QB mold. Mallett transferred to Arkansas and sat out for a season. Presumably, as this “Draft Winds” article will tell you, is where all the rumors about Mallett’s drug use come from, during his year off. There are also tales of him being rather aloof, while at Michigan, as one of “Draft Winds” author Chris Kouffman points out in this interview (apologies for it being on a Miami Dolphins show, but you’ll get to see the whole story on NFL Network’s “Path to the Draft” soon). The links here are to provide you with a more in-depth look at Mallett’s background, and from what the Universal Draft crew has found out, it appears that a lot of these rumors appear to be unsubstantiated, other than his public drunkenness arrest.

The Fit: Picking up from Part I of the Quarterback Special, you’ll remember I had Mallett slated to go to the Vikings at the 12th overall pick. Let me insert the caveat: I think Mallett goes in the first round provided there’s no underlying issues about drugs or his past that the NFL teams have access to. To be clear, many of the teams employ former private eye detectives and FBI and CIA operatives to do background work, and no I’m not kidding. That’s the price you pay when you’re going to invest millions on a college kid. Back on point, assuming Mallett’s background checks out, he’s got the best arm in this draft. While he does come form Bobby Petrino’s offense (see Brian Brohm, Louisville) I think he’ll adjust pretty quickly. He reminds me of Blaine Gabbert in the respect that he’s going to have to learn how to drop back and turn his back to the defense in play action scenarios. However, he’s got a better arm than Gabbert, and throws the deep ball better than any quarterback in this class.

With Minnesota, they have one of the best rush defenses in football. They don’t give up many plays. They can grind clock with Adrian Peterson, and as Brett Favre proved in 2009, they have talent to throw the ball downfield. Sidney Rice, when healthy, is as good a deep threat as there is in the league. Percy Harvin has major talent, and Visanthe Shiancoe has proven he can split the seam. All that crumbled when Favre fell apart in 2010. Minnesota’s left side of their offensive line (Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson) were both once dominant players. They’ve begun their decline. Phil Loadholt and Anthony Herrera on the right side are young, and improving, but they let Brett Favre get hit a lot. That’s my main concern with Mallett here - how does he handle taking punishment. If Minnesota can get improved line play, I really like the way Mallett’s talent can fit into that offense, and new coach Leslie Frazier has stated on multiple occasions that they’re looking for their quarterback of the future.

Strengths and Weaknesses: As I mentioned before, Mallett’s arm strength can’t be questioned, and he’s got decent accuracy, competing 64.7% this past year in Arkansas, up from 55.8% in 2009. Mallett did throw over 400 passes each year, over 100 more attempts than Cam Newton, for comparison in the SEC. Mallett can really throw the deep ball well, and gets pretty good velocity, as you can see in this Sports Science video. However, like Gabbert, Mallett looks very, very, mechanical when going through his drop back steps. I’d imagine he’ll have some issues coming away from the center and getting his feet set when asked to do it a lot in the pros. He’s got long strides, which slow him down, and if you watch some of his game footage, he really sits back on his back foot a lot relying on his arm to bail him out a lot. These flaws are all coachable, and I think it’s something he can do pretty quickly. I certainly think he can play from day one, unlike Newton and Gabbert, especially if he goes to a team like Minnesota who has a running game he can lean on in the early going.

Another thing I don’t like, is that Mallett doesn’t posses much athleticism. Everyone remembers the famous Tom Brady picture from the combine (insert link)…it’s just gross so I’ll only link it if you want to view it. What I’m getting at here is that Mallett looks even worse than Brady does. He’s not mobile, and he doesn’t move well within the pocket, which could spell trouble for him much like it did his predecessor at the University of Michigan, Chad Henne, who suffers from the same flaw.

Value: As I said, Mallett is a pretty polarizing prospect in this draft. I’m sure there’s a team or two that has him as their top rated prospect just as I’m sure there’s a team or two that has already deemed him undraftable. I certainly think he’s got talent - he’s got the prototypical size, arm strength, ability to hit the deep ball, and his accuracy is solid enough to build upon. Most of his game flaws are pretty coachable, and he can remove a lot of them just by getting into better physical shape. Yeah, there are some red flags that have been raised due to off the field “issues” let’s call them, whether they’re true or not.

While Mallett isn’t the poster boy of a franchise the way Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford were when they were coming out of school. If Mallett can put it all together and stays dedicated to staying out of whatever trouble he may or may not have gotten into in the past, I think he’s got the potential to be comparable to what Matt Ryan is with the Atlanta Falcons. I think teams like Minnesota, Miami, Jacksonville in the middle of the first round and even a team like Buffalo or Cincinnati cold tab him, if he lasts that long. Personally, I’d have to think long and hard about taking Mallett in the top ten, which is more to be said than what I think about Newton or Gabbert, but in the end, I’d probably pass on Mallett there as well. This would be doubly true if Andrew Luck were in this draft.


Christian Ponder, Florida State

The Fit: Let’s get something clear right off the bat - Christian Ponder is the most pro-ready quarterback prospect in the entire draft, not just in my top four. That said, Ponder’s been a late-riser in the draft game. Many projected him to be a 2nd or d3rd round pick based solely off his career for the Seminoles. He had an outstanding Senior Bowl week, and didn’t drop off at the combine. A smart guy who has already completed his MBA, he shows great leadership both on and off the field. Ponder’s been able to master Jimbo Fisher’s offensive schemes a Florida State. He’s very adept at play action, he’s got Aaron Rodgers-esque mobility, and he’s familiar with many pro-level passing concepts. While he’s got Rodgers-esque mobility and Chad Pennington-like Football IQ, his arm leaves something to be desired. He’s had shoulder surgery on his throwing arm and underwent two in-season surgeries on his throwing elbow as a senior. For a team that has a sound running game, and wants a good play action game off of it, Ponder is your guy. He’s been linked to Jacksonville for a while, and he’s met with the Dolphins multiple times. They own picks 15 and 16 in the first round. Buffalo and Cincinnati have done their due diligence on him if he does sneak into the second round.

However, I’ve got Ponder projected to go Jacksonville with the 16th overall pick. David Garrard, while solid, is getting older and Ponder just fits what Jacksonville is about. Like Garrard, Ponder possesses the mobility. With a strong running game led by Maurice Jones-Drew and a solid line led by underrated left tackle Eugene Monroe, Ponder should have opportunities to do some damage with weapons like Marcedes Lewis, Mike Thomas, and Mike Sims-Walker, provided Sims-Walker doesn’t leave via free agency. Jacksonville’s defense is solid, and they’ll keep games close, which is what you’d like to have with Ponder at the helm: someone who you can trust to manage the offense and make the big play when you need it.

Strengths and Weaknesses: Again, I’d like to defer you to the “Draft Winds” series as Richard Lines, a former Penn State and Oklahoma running back, gives you an in-depth look at Ponder’s game. There’s definitely some ups and downs in Ponder’s career, but he’s had some rotten luck as well. He first won the quarterback job in Tallahassee behind a very young offensive line and took some lumps. A lot of his talent at receiver graduated after 2009, so he was left with a lot of young guys as a senior. He’s the most experienced of the top four guys I’ve picked, having played in 35 games, and he’s thrown nearly 7,000 passes in his career at FSU. His completion percentage dipped in 2010 from 68.8% down to 61.5%, but that can be attributed to the loss of his older wide receivers.

If you go back to the video of him working out with Blaine Gabbert you’ll notice that Christian Ponder is very smooth, very fluid in his drop backs. He’s very good at play action, and he’s got the ability to crank a deep one here and there (link). As a decision-maker, he’s very good but he’ll get bit every once in a while with what I call “Pennington Syndrome” which means that Ponder will try and stick a throw into a tight window, but he doesn’t physically have the ability to make a particular throw and it ends up incomplete or intercepted.

I think it’s pretty hard for NFL teams to get an accurate read on Ponder because of all the circumstances surrounding his time at Florida State. Much like a Matt Cassell or Mark Sanchez who both played very little ball at USC, Ponder, despite having played 35 games, I don’t know if we’ve yet seen everything he’s capable of putting out there on the field. Cassel and Sanchez have both done well for themselves, Sanchez’s dating game notwithstanding, now that they’re fully in charge of their respective teams. I think Christian Ponder could do the same if he lands in the right situation. For example, if he lands with Cincinnati, I think that’d be disastrous for him. He’d have to carry the whole offense, which is under a new coordinator, Jay Gruden, and has a running back on the decline with an enigmatic #1 receiver in Chad Ochocinco. Definitely not the right spot for him. But, a team like Minnesota, Miami, or Jacksonville could really help the kid out a lot.

Value: I think, given that Ponder is the most pro-ready of these quarterbacks, I’d be most tempted to pick him in the top ten. However, due to his arm limitations, again, I’d have to pass (that makes it 0 for 4 for me in taking one of these guys in the top 10 of the first round). Ponder has to land in the right situation to be successful, but I definitely would want my team to land him over Newton and Gabbert. If a team does get him in round two, I think that’s an absolute boon of a pick, as he can be pressed into action before the other three. I certainly think that he’s capable of giving a team the career of Chad Pennington, which if not for injuries, would’ve been pretty darn good. Let’s also note that Pennington’s primary weakness was throwing the deep ball, but he was intelligent, and for a time, was the NFL’s all-time leader in completion percentage.

Ponder definitely has the tools to work with and could be a very good starting quarterback. I think a solid comparison for him would be Pennington’s brain, Aaron Rodgers’ mobility, and maybe someone like Carson Palmer’s arm post elbow injury. It’s not an outstanding mix, but it’s better than some of the current starters in the NFL today.

Overview

While I wouldn’t personally draft any of the top 4 quarterbacks in the first round if I were the GM of an NFL team, I think there’s some talent to work with. I’d rate Cam Newton as having the highest potential of the 4, but he’s also the most likely to be a bust in my opinion. Ryan Mallett would be the guy I’d want for my team if I were the GM, but it’d be tough to take him over Christian Ponder. Ultimately, I think there’d be a “throwaway year” or two, with Mallett, Gabbert, and Newton, but the payoff could all be higher than Ponder’s. That said, where would these guys really be rated if Andrew Luck were in this class? I certainly don’t think there’d be one in the top 5, but I guess we’ll never know.