KD's 1st Round Draft Thoughts

I got this idea from a poster, Phil, who does this every year on the Dolphins site I frequent. Rather than grade each pick as they happen - though I will be giving grades for each team's complete draft starting next week - I'll record any lightbulbs that pop as the draft starts. Here we go.

Sometime around 5:45pm - Dr. Phil is on ESPN discussing the draft and how rookies don't get enough training about what to do with their money. I guess he's unaware of the Rookie Symposium. Seriously, what has the world come to when Dr. Phil is on ESPN covering the NFL Draft?

6:04pm - I get a text from my oldest friend Tyler, better known as "Nuts" for several reasons I'll not disclose, saying he and his fiancee just had a baby girl. No name as of yet, but congrats buddy! Perhaps they'll name her Melanie after Mel Kiper.

6:16pm - Get a text from one of my old interns asking if Miami is really considering Ryan Mallett at 15. I reply "yes" as I polish off my first beer. I honestly wouldn't be too upset if Mallett is the pick.

6:17pm - Read a post on the Dolphins board that the rumor is Miami will not select a QB in the first round unless they're able to trade back and recoup that 2nd round - or at least that's what they'd want you to think.

My reaction: *$&^, Miami's going to take Colin *%#&!#$ Kaepernick in round 2. Damn you Nick Saban, Daunte Culpepper, Joey Harrington, Trent Green, Cleo Lemon, John Beck, Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, Pat White, and Tyler Thigpen! Please note these are only the Dolphins starting QBs since 2006, and Nick Saban just because.

6:22pm - Ed Werder and John Elway interview. Elway is clearly bothered by being so close to Werder in the closet they're filming this in in "Denver". I get the sense Ole #7 isn't too high on Tim Tebow despite what he's saying.

6:35pm - Tyler's daughter is named Kaylee Grace. Congrats Tyler & Jen!

6:45pm - Naked Pizza arrives. If you haven't tried it, do it. Thank me later.

6:58pm - The rumor source also now says it could be Andy Dalton. Even worse. At least whoever the new coach and GM in 2012 will get Andrew Luck in 2012.

7:35-7:37pm - Roger Goodell getting booed with fans chanting "We Want Football!". Say what you want about New Yawkers, but they can start a chant with the best of them.

8:03pm - Cam Newton's going to the Panthers before Goodell even starts the draft. I hate how the TV cameras get access to the "Green Room" - takes all the drama out of it.

8:07pm - Cam is the pick. The Universal Draft guys called this one back in January. Kudos guys!

8:13pm - Von Miller to Denver...wonder how that's going to workout with Elvis Dumervil there. Should be an interesting handshake with Roger Goodell.

8:20pm - Damn, Buffalo's D is nasty up front with Dareus and Kyle Williams - the most underrated D-lineman in the NFL. Miami really needs Pouncey now!

8:26pm - Just found out from a source with NFL ties that Ryan Mallett isn't on Miami's draft board...great....

8:35pm - Atlanta with a huge trade with the Browns. Atlanta's offense is crazy good, and Cleveland got a king's ransom. I think this is a good trade for both parties, but makes the Dolphins two 2nd rounders for Brandon Marshall seem like peanuts.

8:43pm - Shocking that San Fran takes Aldon Smith...does Miami move up with Dallas for Gabbert now if he gets past Tennessee?

8:45pm - Well, I had Mallett in my mock to Tennesee, so I'm not that surprised with the Locker pick, but WOW for Tennessee passing on Gabbert and Fairley for him.

8:52pm - Jaguars almost land a deal with Dallas. Jags looking to move up still.

9:00pm - Truth - Schefter reports Jags trade up with Washington for Gabbert. Good move for the Jags in my opinion. He can learn under Garrard for a year or two.

9:06pm - I've received over 200 text messages/Facebook posts about the Draft today...and I'm no guru by any means. So glad Judge Nelson lifted the lockout; not sure what I'd do without the NFL.

9:48pm - After a dozen more texts and a phone call, I'm pretty happy with Mike Pouncey at 15 for my Dolphins. Yeah, it's a little high for a LG, but I think he'll prove to be worth it.

Unknown - After talking with a bunch of people about Miami's pick I lost track of time after a few celebratory Jack 'n Cokes...so the rest of the list will be bullitted.

- Ryan Kerrigan to Washington. Surprised, but looking back on my Mock Draft 2.0 a day later, I got 10 picks right - meaning that I correctly picked these team's picks (Newton, Green, Peterson, Pouncey, and Wilkerson) exactly, 3 guys slotted exactly right, but going to different teams (Ryan Kerrigan, Phil Taylor, Mark Ingram), and I'm going to be generous and give myself 2 more for calling Tennessee and Minnesota to take a QB that was unexpected (Mallett, Locker) when in reality it went Locker, Ponder. So, overall, I'll take that. Plus, I got another 3 teams that picked players at the same position, just the wrong player. I feel pretty good about that.

- For all the fawning over New England and their draft abilities, they pick Nate Solder. Really? I know they need offensive linemen, but Nate Solder. Yikes! I guess I can't complain too much for them drafting a very soft and very raw prospect. I guess if there's one O-line coach who can teach him it's the Pats Dante Sarnecchia (I know I butchered that spelling).

- Looking back at my first mock draft, I got 8 guys exactly right, plus Phil Taylor slotted correctly at 21, and I had Christian Ponder slotted in round 1. Overall I feel pretty good about the mocks, even if my percentage is low.

- Steal for the New York Giants with Prince Amukamara. Absolute steal.

- Peyton Manning is going to be a real happy guy with Anthony Castonzo at LT. Bill Polian got his 1st rounder right this year. No offense Jerry Hughes.

- My buddy B-Rad, a Browns fan, bails out before the Browns pick. I think he'll enjoy it when he wakes up. Phil Taylor is very good if he can keep his weight in check.

- Look at the bling on some of these guys who don't have contracts yet. Dareus, Pouncey, Ingram...all SEC players. And to think they don't get paid in college. I remember the HBO special on the Cam Newton/Cecil Newton scandal. One head coach of a BCS Conference school, not in the SEC though, asked for anonymity, but he said, "If we were recruiting a player to come to our school, and we learned that he was being recruited by an SEC school, we just gave up. We don't have that kind of money."

- Chizzy's got to like the military coming out on stage right before the Eagles pick. That's pretty patriotic in itself, especially with a team whose logo is on our national seal up to bat.

- And the Eagles draft a Canadien! Ha, should've seen that one coming. USA! USA!

- Okay, all things considered, Danny Watkins is the toughest, nastiest SOB in the entire draft. He played hockey, wrestled, and played rugby. He can play both T spots, LG, and C. I'm sure he'll be a starter from day one in Philly.

- Wow, Da'Quan Bowers' knee must really be messed up.

- James Carpenter to Seattle is not the reach that Mel Kiper is making it out to be. Can't wait to see what Todd McShay says about this. Solid pick by Seattle for a team that needs OL help, badly!

- Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome, master of letting the draft come to him, must have a major trade deal in the works to get passed up by KC. That's a really good pick for KC with Jonathan Baldwin there. Schefter reports Ravens on the phone with the Bears that whole time and had a misfire in communicaton. Good pick though with Jimmy Smith (I learned this morning that Smith had a codeiene problem at Colorado and thus, why he slid so badly).

- If there's one player in the draft I'd root for even if he went to a team I hate it's Mark Ingram. Heisman winner; humble dude; great story; and just a fun player to watch - he runs HARD. I thought that was a great moment with he and Suzy Kolber reading his dad's e-mail to him on stage. Great pick by the Saints as they get rid of Reggie "BUST".

- My buddy JM, a Packers and Wisconsin Badgers fan, is PISSED that Gabe Carimi goes to Chicago. Great pick by the Bears!

- Damn, the Steelers just draft defense well. Simply put, they're just unbelieveably good at defense - both playing it and drafting for it.

- Good pick by the Jets with Wilkerson. Up and coming player, and I'm afraid to see how Rex Ryan will use him.

- JM doesn't like Derek Sherrod. I'd spoken to him during the Combine and told him Sherrod could be their pick. I guess I should've gone with my gut in the mock drafts.

Well, there's my draft thoughts for the 1st round. The two major surprises were that Ryan Mallett slipped out of round 1. I guess the drug issue is more of a factor than we thought as 31 teams passed on him - note the Raiders didn't have a 1st round pick. Da'Quan Bowers' knee must be REALLY screwed up. He'd have been a top 10 pick for sure if healthy.

Todd McShay must be furious that his beloved Ginger QB Andy Dalton slipped out of round 1.

Fearless forecast for tomorrow, well, now tonight's Draft:

1) Da' Raidas will take Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick.

2) The Patriots will make more moves tomorrow and walk away with a pretty average draft despite having 5 picks tonight. ESPN overrates them way too much.

3) Someone's going to steal Andy Dalton from right under Cincinnati's nose, so keep an eye for them to take Ricky Stanzi, whom was their starting QB in the Senior Bowl, in round 3.

4) A run on RBs and TEs is going to start soon.

5) I bet an unexpected QB goes in round 3. The gut-shot straight draw would be Greg McElroy of Alabama.

KD's Mock Draft - Version 2.0

Draft day is almost here. I've added a 2nd round to my Mock Draft. I didn't project any trades, but on Thursday I'll give you a breif breakdown of some moves that could happen in round 1. Onto the picks:

1st Round

1. Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn- GM Marty Hurney rolls the dice here on the dynamic, but unproven, prospect from Auburn. Newton is not a finished product, but he’ll have the opportunity to become the face of the franchise in Carolina. Newton can make plays with his arm and his feet, but his success hinges on his ability to digest an NFL playbook and terminology.

2. Denver Broncos - Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama- John Elway’s window shopped nearly every quarterback prospect in the draft, but Denver’s defense, ranked 32nd last year, is in need of more major repairs at the moment. Elway and GM Brian Xander draft Dareus, a Richard Seymour clone, to be the key cog in the Denver defensive line. He can play the 1, the 3, and the 5 technique and can get after the passer more than you’d think. Best player in the draft.

3. Buffalo Bills - Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M- The Bills would love to get Cam Newton here as Chan Gailey’s had some success with mobile quarterbacks. Gailey doesn’t get that chance and instead opts to take a dynamic pass-rusher in case Shawn Merriman doesn’t come back from injury. Miller posted DeMarcus Ware-like triangle numbers at the combine, and as long as he doesn’t have to go in reverse much (i.e. drop in coverage) he’ll be a solid threat off the edge.

4. Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia- The Bengals slot their draft picks based on position, and with no real receiving threat opposite the rapidly aging Chad Johnson, the Bengals nab A.J. Green. Green is a complete receiver, able to run over the middle, has excellent hands, and can beat you deep. Whoever quarterbacks the Bengals next year will need weapons as Andre Caldwell and Jordan Shipley are better served in the slot.

5. Arizona Cardinals - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU- It’s no real secret the Cardinals really covet Von Miller. It’s also a not so big secret that Ken Whisenhunt would like to add a veteran to his quarterback stable, so he passes on Blaine Gabbert here. Peterson is one of the most talented corners to come along in quite some time. He’s got Nnamdi Asomugha size and speed, he can tackle, he can return kicks, and can play safety in a pinch. A do everything type to team with DRC.

6. Cleveland Browns - Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson- Despite the rumors about Bowers’ knee, the Browns take a chance here to get a pass-rusher needed for their 4-3 defense. Bowers has been labeled a one year wonder, but he came on in a big way with 15.5 sacks and 25 TFL’s. He wasn’t quite as productive before 2010, but still tallied 4 sacks and 18.5 TFL’s his first two years when he teamed with Ricky Sappy. Bowers is capable of playing end on either side in a 4-3 defense.

7. San Francisco 49ers - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri- The 49ers brass thinks that Alex Smith is still salvageable, but with no impact linebacker or cornerback left on the board, the 49ers get their “franchise” quarterback. Gabbert comes from a spread system that didn’t throw the ball downfield much, and he’ll have to work a lot on his footwork – he’s very mechanical. He’ll fit Jim Harbaugh’s system pretty well, and Harbaugh tried to recruit Gabbert once upon a time. Think Andrew Luck without the arm or running ability.

8. Tennessee Titans - Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas- Here’s the first major curveball for everyone. I think the “character” concerns about Mallett are way overblown. From a pure arm and football IQ standpoint, Mallett is the best quarterback in the draft. I feel like Tennessee has their foot in the water on the QBs in this draft, and will take one at some point. I don’t think it’ll be at the 8th spot – I think they’ll look to trade down (perhaps St. Louis moves up to look at Julio Jones here) and take one later, but for now, I’ll stick Mallett here.

9. Dallas Cowboys - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska- Dallas is another team that’s open for business to trade, again, I’d look at St. Louis and possibly Miami (who has been linked to Blaine Gabbert as of late) to deal up here. If Dallas stays, and I think that’s a big if, Amukamara will be the pick. The Cowboys gave up a lot of big plays last year in the secondary and Amukamara can step in from day one and shut down one side of the field. Terrance Newman is getting old and Mike Jenkins hasn’t lived up to his potential.

10. Washington Redskins - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama - Mike Shanahan is certainly stubborn enough to give Donovan McNabb another go around. If the Redskins do go QB here, I’d expect it to be Jake Locker, given the mobility factor that Shanahan likes in his QBs (Elway, Cutler). The Redskins can’t rely on Anthony Armstrong as a primary weapon again next year, so taking a premium receiver here in Jones is very good value; more so in my opinion than Cincinnati taking Green 4th overall.

11. Houston Texans - Aldon Smith, LB, Missouri- The Texans could definitely use help in the secondary, but with Amukamara off the board as well, they go OLB here. They have some pieces up front with Mario Williams and Antonio Smith, but they don’t have a pass-rusher yet. Smith has absolutely violent hands, some of the best I’ve ever seen, and can run the arc well. He’ll have a lot of trouble having to drop in coverage, but he’ll provide a nice pass-rush for Wade Phillips’ new 3-4 defense.

12. Minnesota Vikings - Jake Locker, QB, Washington- The Vikings need a signal-caller in light of the Brett Favre disaster last year. With all of the quarterbacks being overvalued, the Vikings have no choice but to pull the trigger on one right now. Locker’s athletic and seems to have a decent football IQ, but he’s got accuracy issues. However, many of these issues appear to be coachable. He’ll be pressed into action early, and it’ll show, but this is the right move for the Vikings at this juncture with how the board as fallen.

13. Detroit Lions - Tyron Smith, T, USC- Detroit can’t land their dream prospect Prince Amukamara, so they finally get someone to protect their investment in Matthew Stafford. Smith’s very athletic, but only has experience at right tackle. Many think he’s got the footwork to move to the left side, but it remains to be seen. I’m not sure if he’s the best left tackle in this class as he’s a notch below where Trent Williams and Russell Okung were last year.

14. St. Louis Rams - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn- While St. Louis would love to have Julio Jones available here, they still get lucky and land Auburn DT Nick Fairley. He’ll be a force for the Rams inside from day one. He’s an upgrade over Gary Gibson and he’ll play next to Fred Robbins and be able to penetrate gaps and wreak havoc in the backfield. He’s more of a one-year wonder than Da’Quan Bowers, but his best football is still ahead of him.

15. Miami Dolphins - Mike Pouncey, G, Florida- Miami’s another team that’s going to trade down. With the top 4 quarterbacks gone, I think they’ll look to move back and go after Mike Pouncey. In their scheme, he’ll be a pulling left guard – bad value at the 15th overall spot – but you can see them drafted in round one (Logan Mankins). Pouncey should start from day one, and I think he’s one of Miami’s main targets, the others being Mallett and Mark Ingram, but I don’t think he’ll be the 15th overall pick.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue- The Jags have tried and tried in recent years to get a productive pass-rusher. They’ve experimented with a lot of potential types. Now they just go by the numbers. Kerrigan, while not a smooth athlete, has 37.5 career sacks and 55.5 TFL’s throughout his career. He can play either side in the 4-3, and is best with his hand in the ground. Comes from a program that’s produced a long line of quality defensive players over the years in Roosevelt Colvin, Chike Okeafor, Shaun Phillips, Ray Edwards, Anthony Spencer, Rob Ninkovich, and Cliff Avril.

17. New England Patriots - J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin- The Patriots need to continue getting younger in the defensive front. Ty Warren is coming off injury, and while they added Marcus Stroud, they can still stand to infuse more talent to bolster the line. Watt has a non-stop motor and can get after the passer. He’s very athletic for a 3-4 DE and can kick inside in nickel and dime packages or even play with his hand on the ground in some 4-3 packages.

18. San Diego Chargers - Robert Quinn, LB, North Carolina- The Chargers also get lucky with Robert Quinn’s free fall here. He’ll convert to the OLB spot in San Diego’s 3-4 defense. They need to upgrade their front seven as Larry English hasn’t panned out and they got rid of Shawne Merriman. A year off from football might make Quinn seem a bit sluggish at first. He needs to increase his repertoire of moves, but that concern should be somewhat alleviated in a 3-4.

19. New York Giants - Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College- The Giants played musical chairs last year on the O-line, and they probably missed the playoffs because of it. Both David Diehl and Kareem McKenzie are aging at tackle. Castonzo is the best pure left tackle in this draft, though, again, a notch below what Williams and Okung were last year. Castonzo can play either side, but he’s best suited on the left where the Giants can kick David Diehl back inside to his natural guard position.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cameron Jordan, DE, California- The Buccaneers will have to heavily consider Colorado CB Jimmy Smith at this point due to the impending release of Aqib Talib. However, I doubt they’ll take another CB with issues, and Smith has some. Cameron Jordan gives them a solid strong side end to take up the Kevin Carter position in Tampa. He’s versatile enough to be a number one pass rush threat and he can kick inside on passing downs.

21. Kansas City Chiefs - Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor- The Chiefs need a nose tackle to plug the run on the D-line. They’ll have some high investments there having used 1st round picks on Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson, but Taylor might end up being better than both when all is said and done. He’s 6’3” 334lbs and is very athletic for a man his size – classic “Planet Theory” player. He’ll disappear for long stretches, but he’s got loads of potential and is still coming into his own.

22. Indianapolis Colts - Nate Solder, T, Colorado- GM Bill Polian admitted he regrets taking Jerry Hughes with his first round pick last year and not protecting Peyton Manning. Solder’s a converted tight end with good feet and a blue collar attitude, despite his finesse style of play, and he should start immediately at left tackle for the Colts. He’ll have to learn quickly, but doesn’t everyone when Peyton Manning’s running your huddle?

23. Philadelphia Eagles - Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin- As mobile as Michael Vick is, he still took a beating last year. Philadelphia has the left side of the line under control with Jason Peters, but they could definitely stand to improve over Winston Justice. Carimi will have to transition to the right side, but he’s pretty athletic – he was asked to pull from his LT post at UW – and is nasty in the run game.

24. New Orleans Saints - Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa- The Saints need pass rush help opposite Will Smith. They’ve tried to plug players in that spot for the last few years with little success. Clayborn’s a proven rusher who had an outstanding 2009 season. His play fell off a bit in 2010, but that may have been due to injury. He gave Wisconsin T Gabe Carimi fits throughout his career and will have Smith opposite him.

25. Seattle Seahawks - Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado- Pete Carroll’s been known to take a chance on guys with questionable character in the past. The Seahawks have a lot of talent on defense, but can use an upgrade at CB. Marcus Trufant is a solid veteran, but Kelly Jennings’ play has taken a dip recently. Smith’s triangle numbers at the combine were outstanding and he’s a true shut down corner.

26. Baltimore Ravens - Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State- GM Ozzie Newsome is known for sticking to his draft board and landing talented players. He gets another one here with Cameron Heyward. Heyward is a prototypical 3-4 DE and he can start from day one. He’ll allow Haloti Ngata to slide in and be a true NT. Heyward is a 3-down player, but he is coming off a serious elbow injury that bears watching. Excellent value pick here for Baltimore.

27. Atlanta Falcons- Justin Houston, DE, Georgia- The Falcons are stuck between a rock and a hard place with a serious run on pass rushers. They take a chance on local product Justin Houston, who looks the part, but isn’t always productive. A physical specimen at 6’2” 270lbs with a 4.69 40, he’s got a few decent moves. Buyer beware with Georgia pass rushers though.

28. New England Patriots - Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama- I fully expect another team to be picking in the 28th spot - primarily one of the teams that needs to address the quarterback spot like Buffalo or Cincinnati. Ingram fits in well with what the Patriots do, and he’s an upgrade over Laurence Maroney and Danny Woodhead. He’s a tough, tough runner, and has good hands out the backfield. Has drawn tons of comparisons to Emmitt Smith.

29. Chicago Bears - Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois- The Bears need another force up front as Tommie Harris is gone, and Matt Toeaina and Anthony Adams are merely average. Liuget is raw, but very talented and fits that quick, undersized mold the Bears seem to love. He really came on in 2010 and his best football may still be in front of him. Typical Bears selection that will pay off big for them.

30. New York Jets - Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple- The Jets can stand to upgrade their front seven as well. No one knows about the future of NT Kris Jenkins, though Sione Pouha played well at times in his absence. Shaun Ellis is 33 and an impending free agent and Trevor Pryce is a dinosaur. There’s little else in the way of depth aside from Mike DeVito, so Wilkerson can step in as a plug and play DE in the 3-4.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Aaron Williams, CB, Texas- Historically the Steelers haven’t taken cornerbacks in round one. With Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden having less than stellar seasons and getting burned in the Super Bowl, the Steelers add another piece to their defense. Williams has size and speed and enough talent to start from day one opposite Ike Taylor. He’ll eventually be tasked with taking over the #1 CB duties and that should be a relatively smooth transition.

32. Green Bay Packers - Brooks Reed, LB, Arizona- The Packers get a lot of injured talent back in 2011, which makes them even better. The Packers had great success drafting Clay Matthews late in round 1 in 2009, and they dip into the OLB well again. Ted Thompson’s always been a BPA guy, and at this point, that player is Reed. Reed is 6’2” 263lbs has a non-stop motor and good speed. He’s got the size to play the strong side position and he should be able to supplant Frank Zombo there to give the Packers the best OLB duo not named Harrison and Woodley.

2nd Round

33. New England Patriots - Danny Watkins, G, Baylor
- Tough as nails G who can fill the void of Stephen Neal’s retirement at RG.

34. Buffalo Bills - Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
- A tough, mobile QB that will eventually unseat incumbent Ryan Fitzpatrick in Buffalo.

35. Cincinnati Bengals - Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
- Dalton should take well to Jay Gruden’s new west coast system in Cincinnati.

36. Denver Broncos - Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
- The Broncos need a QB-friendly target. Rudolph is big and explosive with great hands.

37. Cleveland Browns - Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
- Browns bolster D-line with a 1st round talent who slips because of suspension.

38. Arizona Cardinals - Jabaal Sheard, LB, Pittsburgh
- The Cards get a productive pass-rusher to play OLB. Can put his hand down if needed.

39. Tennessee Titans - Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
- Immensely talented, but underachieved in 2010. Will challenge troubled Kenny Britt.

40. Dallas Cowboys - Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State
- Cowboys get lucky with a solid LT prospect that injects much needed youth to their OL.

41. Washington Redskins - Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
- Shanahan gets a mobile QB to be the eventual successor…or starter. Talented athlete.

42. Houston Texans - Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
- Much needed upgrade at the CB position and comes from a strong lineage at the U.

43. Minnesota Vikings - Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
- The Williams wall has started crumbling. Paea is vastly underrated and very strong.

44. Detroit Lions - Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
- Detroit needs help in the secondary and they land a big, physical CB here.

45. San Francisco 49ers - Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
- 49ers land a leader for the secondary to go with their new offensive leader from rd 1.

46. Denver Broncos - Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA
- Broncos land a talented LB for their new 4-3 defense. Can play either outside spot.

47. St. Louis Rams - Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami
- The Rams get a legitimate receiving weapon for QB Sam Bradford. Underrated player.

48. Oakland Raiders - Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville
- Nnamdi Asomugha is gone, and Al Davis loves him some speed. Patrick has speed.

49. Jacksonville Jaguars - Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
- The Jags need more firepower on offense with Mike Sims-Walker about to leave.

50. San Diego Chargers - Kenrick Ellis, NT, Hampton
- Hugely talented player who had some off-field issues at Penn State early in career.

51. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Curtis Brown, CB, Texas
- The Bucs need another CB prospect for when they release the troubled Aqib Talib.

52. New York Giants - Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
- Tough, physical runner to replace Brandon Jacobs in the backfield for the G-Men.

53. Indianapolis Colts - Titus Young, WR, Boise State
- It almost seems unfair to give Peyton Manning another great weapon at the WR spot.

54. Philadelphia Eagles - Davon House, CB, New Mexico State
- Excellent CB with great size/speed combo. Tough as nails and a 4 year starter.

55. Kansas City Chiefs - Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky
- The Chiefs need a better complimentary player across from Dwayne Bowe.

56. New Orleans Saints - Bruce Carter, LB, North Carolina
- Saints need more bodies at both outside linebacker positions. Carter is a good player.
57. Seattle Seahawks - Jurrell Casey, DT, USC
- Carroll takes a former recruit to bolster the interior of the defensive line.

58. Baltimore Ravens - Jalil Brown, CB, Colorado
- The Ravens need all kinds of help at the CB spot; Brown is very underrated.

59. Atlanta Falcons - Lance Kendricks, TE, Wisconsin
- Falcons get a talented successor to Tony Gonzalez at TE. Will help Matt Ryan a lot.

60. New England Patriots - Mason Foster, LB, Washington
- Potential OLB for the Patriots. Underrated and undersized, but very, very talented.

61. San Diego Chargers - Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy
- Speed slot WR who can replace Darren Sproles on kick and punt returns.

62. Chicago Bears - James Carpenter, T, Alabama
- Bears need to upgrade over Frank Omiyale at the LT spot. Carpenter can play T or G.

63. Pittsburgh Steelers - Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois
- James Farrior won’t be around too much longer. Wilson can play both ILB and OLB.

64. Green Bay Packers - Allen Bailey, DE, Miami
- Packers take a chance on physical specimen. Needs training wheels on for a while.

Ryan Mallett: The Bomb

Well, it didn't take as long as expected for the Ryan Mallett bomb to get dropped...albeit partially.

Pro Football Weekly's Nolan Narwocki drops the first part of the news. Ryan Mallett, the former Arkansas QB did admit to NFL personnel at the Combine that he did use drugs, other than marijuana, recreationally while attending Arkansas.

I found this quote to be especially telling:

"One GM said Mallett was the first quarterback ever to admit his drug usage to him in interviews." Mallett never had a positive drug test at Arkansas, but sources tell Nawrocki that he has a reputation as a "big party guy." Said one league executive, "I would not take him at any point (in the draft)."

As for Mallett, it'll be interesting to see how this hurts his stock. I've seen him going as high (no pun intended) 4 to the Cincinnati Bengals in some mock draft circles. As far as pure passing talent, Mallett is easily tops in this draft, and his skills in various chalk-talk (play diagramming) sessions have been superb according to all reports. However, you've really got to be sure he's broken these habits.

Interestingly enough, about 30 years ago, another highly touted quarterback with excellent arm talent, entered the draft and was linked to drug problems in college, specifically cocaine use. His name: Dan Marino. The rumors hurt Marino's stock as he was the last quarterback taken in the fabled first round of 1983. He was the best quarterback from that class, regardless if John Elway won two Super Bowls handing the ball of to Terrell Davis. For history's sake, here's how it shook out:

1. Baltimore Colts - John Elway - Stanford (Elway demanded a trade to Denver).
7. Kansas City Chiefs - Todd Blackledge - Penn State
14. Buffalo Bills - Jim Kelly - Miami
15. New England Patriots - Tony Eason - Illinois
24. New York Jets - Ken O'Brien - UC-Davis
27. Miami Dolphins - Dan Marino - Pittsburgh

Statistically, Marino owned every major statistical category over all of these QBs, except he trails John Elway in all-time wins by one: 148-147. Obviously Marino overcame the rumors and played for 16 seasons at a Hall of Fame level.

While I'm not crowning Ryan Mallett the next Dan Marino, it'll be interesting to see if he suffers a worse slide in the draft. I expect this is just the tip of the iceberg with regard to Mallett, as this wasn't quite the "bomb" I was expecting.

All things considered, I don't know if Mallett will slide out of the first round, as he did admit it of his on volition. Better to get it out there personally and truthfully, rather than to be found out later on having lied to your potential employer. Stay tuned.

Sports Quick Hits

Some plans got changed around for me this weekend, and I ended up at the Reds games on Saturday and Sunday. I didn't have time to come up with a specific article on one topic, so consider this our version of ESPN's bottom line...just more descriptive.

A quick aside here, but after attending 4 Reds games in this young season, I think I can say that Reds fans might be some of the worst foul-ball catchers out there.

- First up, Chizzy and I have our alternating mock draft underway. I'll be handling the odd numbered picks, and he'll take care of the even numbered picks. We should have that up in the next couple of days.

- Sticking with the draft, I can't provide you with full disclosure, but what I can tell you is that Chris Kouffman, from the "Draft Winds" series I mentioned in my mock draft, will have his "Path to the Draft" episode aired sometime early this week. Obviously some of it will be scrubbed out due to time constraints, as you have in any interview. If you'll remember he was asked to come on the show for their piece on Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett...and let's just say that at some point this week a bomb is going to be dropped. And I'm not talking a conventional 500lb bomb, or even a MOAB (Mother of all bombs - considered to be the most powerful non-nuclear weapon)...it's going to be full nuclear. I'll give you a heads-up on what to look for when it happens, if you can't tell.

- One last NFL nuggett for you. Judge Nelson's "a few weeks" ruling will be at two this Thursday. It remains to be seen on whether or not she'll end the lockout, thus allowing the players to return to working out at their facilites. No word yet on free agency or the trading of players. Mediation begins again tomorrow, and DeMaurice Smith's hat collection will be there.

- If you remember Chizzy's article about Bryan Stow, it's regrettable to hear that he was put back into a medically induced coma over the weekend. Please remember to keep him in your thoughts and prayers.

- Thanks to Schwendy's NHL Preview, I found myself watching some hockey in the past few days. I guess if I had to pick a favorite team, it'd be the Rangers, as that was my dad's team (we used to live near New York City when I was 3). They lost to the Captials in OT despite being ahead late into the 3rd period. I got up after the game, and when I came back to the TV, the Canucks - Blackhawks game was about to start. A fat guy started singing "Oh Canada", with a more than raucous crowd joining in to the point the fat guy stopped and simply held the mic up for the crowd. This video isn't from the playoff game, and I'm not sure if this is how "Oh Canada" traditionally works in Vancouver, as the same fat dude is singing in every YouTube video I could find, but to give you a sense of how much Canadiens love hockey, watch this. Keep in mind this is from 2009, but it was the same last week. I doubt we'll be seeing something like this in the States, eh?

- Barry Bonds was convicted on obstruction of justice. And you expected something else to happen? I think it'd be better for baseball history if Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Palmierio, et al just came out and admitted they used steroids. I mean, really, you're telling me this guy became this guy by hard work in the gym? Please.

- If Dwight Howard were on any other NBA playoff team, that team would win the championship hands down. He scored 46, Jameer Nelson scored 27. No other player on the Magic scored more than 6 points. You do the math.

- Chizzy's NBA Preview was pretty in line with my NBA Playoff fantasy picks. I'm part of a league called the "Fantasy Heptathlon", where we bet on seven different sporting events each year. As defending champion of the NBA Playoff picks, let me just say that I felt very, very shaky with my selections this year. Here are my first round picks (we must correctly identify the winner and the length of the series. 1 point is lost for each game you're off. For instance, if you picked the Bulls to sweep, and they do, you get 8 points).

Eastern Conference:

Bulls over Pacers in 4 - I went ballsy with that one.
Heat over 76ers in 5 - Yeah, I think Philly could steal one.
Celtics over Knicks in 6 - I regret picking this series to last that long already.
Magic over Hawks in 6 - To quote Homer J. Simpson, "Doh!"

Western Conference:

Spurs over Grizzlies in 7 - Feeling pretty good about this after Game 1.
Lakers over Hornets in 4 - Damn you Chris Paul.
Portland over Dallas in 6 - I got nothing.
Thunder over Nuggets in 6 - I've got the Thunder going to the West Finals.

- I'll keep you posted on how I'm doing. Hard to tell after each series has only 1 game played. That said, how do the NBA Playoffs last so long? I mean really, these teams all play back-to-back home and away games half the year. Just for an example, Orlando and Atlanta won't play their Game 3 until this Friday. It's no wonder people watch March Madness more, though I'll make one guarantee however. All games in the NBA Finals, however many there are, will ALL be better than Butler vs. UConn.

That's it for now, keep on the lookout for our Alternating Mock Draft, and for the bomb that's about to be dropped regarding Ryan Mallett.

2011 NFL Mock Draft Version 1.0

1. Carolina Panthers Cam Newton QB Auburn
- New coach Ron Rivera has primarily been a defensive coordinator throughout his career, so you can’ completely rule out someone like Marcel Dareus or Patrick Peterson, but ultimately I think they go Cam Newton here if they can’t trade out. Newton has the highest upside of any of the quarterbacks in the draft. He’s a winner, has good accuracy, had experience in a pro style offense in high school and at Blinn Junior College, and is very athletic. Prototypical size and measurables.
Current NFL Comparison: Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

2. Denver Broncos Marcel Dareus DT Alabama
- New coach John Fox still gets a high pick despite switching teams. New football operations boss, the legendary John Elway, and GM Brian Xanders have been meeting with all of the top quarterback prospects despite having Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, and Brady Quinn on the roster. Ultimately, I think they pass on a QB, at least in round one, and take the best defensive player available, Marcel Dareus. He’s scheme diverse, and should do well as a 3-technique in Denver’s new 4-3 defense.
Current NFL Comparison: Richard Seymour, Raiders

3. Buffalo Bills Von Miller LB Texas A&M
- GM Buddy Nix telegraphed picking C.J. Spiller last year. This year, while the Bills have visited with Newton and Gabbert, I think they learned their lesson from last year. The Bills switched to a 3-4 and made a star out of NT Kyle Williams. They have a solid secondary with youngster Jarius Byrd at FS. The one thing they lack is a dominant pass-rusher. Von Miller represents the best pure 3-4 OLB in the draft. He’ll have to develop some coverage skills, but he’s one of those guys that won’t have to play in reverse all that much. If Buffalo finds someone solid across from him, he’ll be really dangerous.
Current NFL Comparison: DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys

4. Cincinnati Bengals A.J. Green WR Georgia
- Mike Brown’s holding hostage of Carson Palmer muddies the water with the Bengals, who are unpredictable at times as it is. Unless Brown drastically changes his stance, which history tells us he won’t, Carson Palmer will be “retired” in 2011. That said, I don’t think the Bengals are that fond of Blaine Gabbert. They want someone to go downfield, and Cam Newton’s already gone. They can take A.J. Green here and have a weapon for whomever is quarterback. Green is as safe a bet as a WR prospect there’s been since Calvin Johnson in 2007.
Current NFL Comparison: Reggie Wayne, Colts

5. Arizona Cardinals Patrick Peterson CB LSU
- The Cardinals really want Von Miller to slide past Buffalo, but I don’t think he will, which makes them a team that might be looking to trade back. I don’t think Blaine Gabbert fits what they want at quarterback, and they might even be convinced to try and develop Max Hall or John Skelton before taking another quarterback. I think for right now, Patrick Peterson, who is the best player in the draft, is a good placeholder for them. They can use him at CB opposite Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie or at FS as Kerry Rhodes eventual replacement. But I still think they look to trade back.
Current NFL Comparison: Nnamdi Asomugha, Raiders

6. Cleveland Browns Robert Quinn DE North Carolina
- Pat Shurmer, another new head coach and football boss Mike Holmgren are switching to the 4-3. The Browns lacked a true passer for the 3-4, so they’ll try and use their personnel in a switch for the 4-3. Matt Roth can handle strong side DE duties, but they need a pass-rusher. North Carolina’s Robert Quinn is truly dynamic and looked outstanding at his pro day and at the Combine despite being suspended for the year. Cleveland could also target a receiver such as A.J. Green, or even a bit more dark horse here, but Julio Jones to give Colt McCoy a new weapon. For now, Quinn is the pick.
Current NFL Comparison: Elvis Dumervil, Broncos

7. San Francisco 49ers Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri
- The 49ers could go in a bunch of directions. Many project LSU’s Patrick Peterson falling here, and he’d fit in really well playing behind Patrick Willis. However, Alex Smith and Troy Smith are probably not what Jim Harbaugh wants long-term. Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert fits what Harbaugh did at Stanford decently well. While he take his lumps learning the nuances of dropping back, setting his feet properly, play action fakes, etc. he can lean on the running of Frank Gore and Vernon Davis in the seam.
Current NFL Comparison: Aaron Rodgers, Packers

8. Tennessee Titans Nick Fairley DT Auburn
- Mike Muchak would love for Blaine Gabbert to fall to the 8th pick, but I doubt that will happen. The Titans defense certainly lost some bite when Albert Haynesworth left for Dan Snyder’s money bags in D.C. Jason Jones is a freak in the middle, and Jovan Haye is serviceable, but Sen’Derrick Marks has yet to make the progress they expected. They go to the Auburn well again here with Fairley who is an outstanding one-gap penetrator in the 4-3. He should fit into the defense very well and make an immediate impact.
Current NFL Comparison: Gerald McCoy, Buccaneers

9. Dallas Cowboys J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin
- Under Bill Parcells, the Cowboys had a feared defense with DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis coming off the edges. Marcus Spears and Stephen Bowen are serviceable, but an upgrade is needed. J.J. Watt is better than any 5-technique end that’s come out in the past few years. He’s got a non-stop motor, strength at the point of attack, and he’s very athletic - his numbers are better than last year’s top 3-4 DE Jared Odrick (28th overall). Watt gives the Cowboys some more teeth up front, but you can’t count out an offensive lineman, or a trade down. Florida’s Mike Pouncey recently tweeted he’d be the pick, so who knows what Jerry Jones has going on.
Current NFL Comparison: Luis Castillo, Chargers

10. Washington Redskins Julio Jones WR Alabama
- Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb had a rocky first season together. McNabb had virtually no weapons aside from Chris Cooley. The running game died out, and they’ve got some young linemen protecting for McNabb. Since they probably won’t reach for Mark Ingram, the best available weapon is Alabama’s Julio Jones. Jones tore up the Combine with a broken bone in his foot, and should be 100% by the time the season rolls around. I’ve seen Jones in person, and while’s not that 4.39 speed guy, he’s plenty dominant and can catch everything.
Current NFL Comparison: Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

11. Houston Texans Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska
- The Texans secondary was one of the worst in the history of the NFL last year. First round pick Kareem Jackson and Dolphins re-tread Jason Allen struggled, and the Texans have little speed at the S position. With Nebraska’s Prince Amukamara on the board, the Texans have to take them. Many would say, why not draft a front seven player for the new 3-4 defense? Well, with the NFL being such a pass-first league now, you can’t pass on someone like Amukamara, especially if he falls here.
Current NFL Comparison: Tramon Williams, Packers

12. Minnesota Vikings Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas
- The Vikings have been known to take some risks in the draft (see Troy Williamson) and with the quarterback position in general (see Brett Favre). Having learned enough about Ryan Mallett to thwart some of the off-field rumors, the Vikings get the draft’s best pure passer. The Vikings have a win-now roster so they need to solve the quarterback issue pronto. They have little depth on the defensive side, so you can’t quite rule that out here, but the golden rule of drafting is don’t pass on a franchise quarterback if you don’t already have one.
Current NFL Comparison: Philip Rivers, Chargers

13. Detroit Lions Tyron Smith T USC
- The Lions don’t get lucky enough to have a top cornerback fall to them. They have a lot of holes, but are an improving team. However, Matthew Stafford can’t seem to stay upright, and drafting a franchise left tackle is a smart strategy. By drafting Smith, you can plug him at his natural RT spot and slide Gosder Cherlius inside to G while Smith gets adjusted. Or, you can put him on the blind side from day one and move Jeff Backs to RT or G. Either way, the Lions won’t continue to improve if Matthew Stafford isn’t on the field. Da’Quan Bowers is a dark-horse for me here as well.
Current NFL Comparison: Jermon Bushrod, Saints

14. St. Louis Rams Da’Quan Bowers DE Clemson
- The Rams lose hope after Julio Jones gets tabbed by the Redskins; they’ll have to wait to get Sam Bradford a weapon. The Rams have some holes on their defensive line, and Da’Quan Bowers falls to them. I think I take him over any DT in this draft. Bowers can play opposite Chris Long to give the Rams some more teeth on the defensive line. Bowers does have knee issues, but when healthy, he can be flat out dominant at times. A trade down wouldn’t be out of the question either, but I think the Rams get a quality player at #14 regardless of position.
Current NFL Comparison: Will Smith, Saints

15. Miami Dolphins Mike Pouncey C Florida
- If there’s any team, other than the Patriots, that’d I’d bet on to trade down in the first round, it’s the Dolphins. They don’t have a 2nd round pick as a result of the Brandon Marshall trade last year, so I think they’ll open shop to move down. If they stay however, I don’t think any of the quarterbacks represents an upgrade over what Chad Henne already is, at least this year. Mark Ingram isn’t the dynamic type of back that you draft early, so if they stay, I think they go with Mike Pouncey to play C or G and give an injection of athleticism to their statuesque interior of their offensive line.
Current NFL Comparison: Maurkice Pouncey, Steelers

16. Jacksonville Jaguars Christian Ponder QB Florida State
- The Jaguars take the quarterback the Dolphins pass on to be the heir to David Garrard. The Jaguars certainly know how to “shock” people (Tyson Alualu at 10 last year), but Ponder is a great fit for their system. He’s pretty similar to Garrard, and he’s already got a good grasp on a pro-style offense coming from Jimbo Fisher’s system in Tallahassee. The Jaguars have said quite a few times that they’re happy with Garrard…but you can’t trust teams this time of year. I think there’s some fire with that smoke here in Jacksonville, and a local guy would help put people in the seats.
Current NFL Comparison: Chad Pennington, Dolphins

17. New England Patriots Cameron Jordan DE California
- No team plays the draft game better than New England. However, the Patriots wheeling and dealing hasn’t gotten them that many solid players over the past few years. Ty Warren is coming off a serious injury and they traded away Richard Seymour, so they have to re-tool the D-line to get their defense back to the level it was at during their Super Bowl years. Cameron Jordan is an outstanding 5-technique player who can move. He’s not quite as big as J.J. Watt, but he’s proven he can get to the passer notching 17.5 over his career at Cal.
Current NFL Comparison: Kendall Langford, Dolphins

18. San Diego Chargers Aldon Smith LB Missouri
- The Chargers, another team known for trading on draft day to get who they want, would love to leapfrog New England as they too have needs in their front seven. While they miss out on a 3-4 DE, they can add a pass-rusher to go across from Shaun Phillips. Smith has absolutely violent hands and uses them well (Vernon Gholston take notes). He’s got speed off the edge, and he’s a solid run defender. He’ll have to take some time to transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4, but he should be able to start ahead of Larry English and Antwan Applewhite.
Current NFL Comparison: Bryan Thomas, Jets

19. New York Giants Anthony Castonzo T Boston College
- The Giants played musical chairs with their offensive line last year and it cost them…almost as much as their rookie punter kicking to DeSean Jackson. David Diehl and Kareem McKenzie are both aging at tackle, and though they’ve drafted players of the future (William Beatty), they may need a starting-caliber option now. Castonzo is a long, lean prospect who excels at pass blocking. He’s very smart and should be able to adjust to the pro game pretty quickly. I think Gabe Carimi could get some consideration here given the Giants physical running style, but ultimately, I don’t think Carimi pass-blocks well enough to warrant the nod over Castonzo at this point.
Current NFL Comparison: Sam Baker, Falcons

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa
- One of the youngest teams in the NFL is on the rise. The Bucs have an outstanding young QB in Josh Freeman, and they’ve begun retooling their defense. Gerald McCoy does need help on the defensive line, and the Bucs haven’t had a pass-rusher since the late Gaines Adams days. Adrian Clayborn had an up and down 2010, but when he’s going full bore, he’s a very good player. I think he fits well into the Bucs Cover 2 scheme and can play that strong side DE position opposite Stylez G. White (formerly Greg White). Clayborn’s production dipped as a senior, but I think he’ll regain his 2009 form in Tampa Bay’s system (20 TFL’s, 11.5 sacks).
Current NFL Comparison: Antwan Odom, Bengals

21. Kansas City Chiefs Phil Taylor NT Baylor
- The Chiefs were the NFL’s big surprise turnaround team in 2010. If they don’t want to fall back, as those teams tend to do, they need to get a NT to anchor their defense. Shaun Smith and Dion Gales leave a lot to be desired, and Baylor’s Phil Taylor can fill the void. Taylor’s been a fast-riser since the Senior Bowl and has gotten his weight down, yes down, to 334lbs. The former Penn State recruit is somewhat raw in technique and doesn’t always play as big as his size, but his best football is still ahead of him. I give Taylor the nod over Stephen Paea due to Paea’s knee injury.
Current NFL Comparison: Jamal Williams, Broncos

22. Indianapolis Colts Nate Solder T Colorado
- Colts GM Bill Polian said he was going to address the OL after losing to the Saints in the Super Bowl. Colts fans are still waiting. Charlie Johnson fared well playing at left tackle, but he’d better serve the Colts by kicking inside to guard. The Colts offense certainly isn’t physical, and passes more than it runs, so Nate Solder is the pick here to protect Peyton Manning’s blind side. Solder is more finesse than physical despite his 6’8” 319lbs frame. A converted tight end, he’s pretty athletic and is still learning the nuances of the position.
Current NFL Comparison: Jason Peters, Eagles

23. Philadelphia Eagles Akeem Ayers LB UCLA
- The Eagles always seem to draft well and get production out of their rookies. Ellis Hobbs’ retirement leaves a hole at CB, but I can’t see the Eagles taking someone who has character issues like Jimmy Smith of Colorado. They relied on Moise Fokou and Akeem Jordan at strong side LB last year. UCLA’s Akeem Ayers represents a big upgrade here. He’s big, can run, and makes plays behind the line (24.5 TFL’s the past two years). He’s also solid in coverage as well. Keep an eye on Philly to trade as well as they always seem to be in the market for acquiring future picks.
Current NFL Comparison: D.J. Williams, Broncos

24. New Orleans Saints Mark Ingram RB Alabama
- The Saints potent offense suffered a shutdown of sorts in the running game last year. Pierre Thomas got injured and is a free agent. Reggie Bush has never been capable of being an every down runner in the NFL, and Chris Ivey, while productive, might be a one-year wonder. Enter the former Heisman Trophy Winner Mark Ingram. Ingram gives the Saints a better inside runner to replace Pierre Thomas, who is also versatile enough to be in the passing game. This will help the Saints move Reggie Bush around and continue to get something out of him. D-line depth could also be in the cards here.
Current NFL Comparison: Shonn Greene, Jets

25. Seattle Seahawks Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue
- The Seahawks would normally be picking in the top half of the draft, but the NFC West is so bad, Seattle made the playoffs. A future QB could be an option here, but I just can’t picture Jake Locker going this high with his accuracy issues. Seattle could use a pass-rusher to play opposite Chris Clemons. Ryan Kerrigan of Purdue has really skyrocketed up boards lately having notched 23.5 sacks the past two years and 37.5 in his career. While not the greatest athlete, he plays downhill with excellent technique and figures to be what Seattle thought they were getting when they drafted Darryl Tapp.
Current NFL Comparison: Chris Long, Rams

26. Baltimore Ravens Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
- GM Ozzie Newsome is always known for sticking to his draft board and pulling in quality players. Jimmy Smith, if not for off-field issues, might be a top 15 pick in this year’s draft. If there’s one weakness to the Ravens defense, it’s at the cornerback position. Smith has size, speed, and is pretty good in run support…when he wants to be. He doesn’t always play up to his skill set and it’s been rumored that many teams are turned off by his personality and his failed drug test. That said, if there’s a team that is willing to overlook that, it’s Baltimore (see Sergio Kindle).
Current NFL Comparison: Charles Woodson, Packers

27. Atlanta Falcons Cameron Heyward DE Ohio State
- The Falcons laid a major egg in the playoffs against the Packers and part of the reason is because they couldn’t get to Aaron Rodgers. Jamaal Anderson has been a major bust a DE and John Abraham is getting older. Kroy Biermann plays well in spurts, but they could use some help. Cameron Heyward had a down year as a senior, and got manhandled by Gabe Carimi, the best tackle he faced all season. That said, Heyward offers versatility with the ability to play strong side end better than Anderson, and he can slide inside in passing situations.
Current NFL Comparison: Tyson Jackson, Chiefs

28. New England Patriots Brooks Reed LB Arizona
- The Patriots went 14-2 with Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich as their OLBs last season. I think they have something for the future with Jermaine Cunningham to team with Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes, which leaves a pure pass-rusher remaining. Arizona’s Brooks Reeds is pretty similar to Clay Matthews, who was also picked in this area in 2009. Reed’s 6’2” and 263lbs and has a non-stop motor. He’s got the ability to come off the edge and can play the run well. New England could also look to get help on the offensive line as Matt Light is a free agent, Logan Mankins wants out of town, and Stephen Neal retired.
Current NFL Comparison: Clay Matthews, Packers

29. Chicago Bears Corey Liuget DT Illinois
- Tommie Harris didn’t regain his top form after he regained his job for the Bears this season. Anthony Adams is solid, but doesn’t offer much pass-rush potential. Matt Toeaina impressed me with some solid flashes, but the Bears could still use a dominating presence in the middle. Corey Liuget would make the Bears defense, already good, even better. Liuget has a solid build with room to get bigger, and he really came on in 2010 with 12.5 TFL’s and 4.5 sacks. He fit’s the scheme and it’s an area of need. An offensive lineman like Danny Watkins could be a possibility as well.
Current NFL Comparison: Tank Johnson, Bengals

30. New York Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE Temple
- The Jets defense isn’t nearly as good as people make it out to be. It’s more smoke and mirrors than anything else. They don’t have a premier pass-rusher, and I think GM Mike Tannenbaum will hold some reservations with Justin Houston stemming from the Vernon Gholston pick. The Jets have an aging front with Shaun Ellis and Trevor Pryce. Wilkerson is one of those under the radar players from a MAC school. Wilkerson has excellent size and a good frame. He’ll be able to be a rotational player for a while, but he should be better than Mike DeVito in the long run. OLB is another area of need.
Current NFL Comparison: Marcus Spears, Cowboys

31. Pittsburgh Steelers Gabe Carimi T Wisconsin
- The Steelers could use a corner, but I think they finally have to address their offensive line. Losing Willie Colon hurt, and Flozell Adams isn’t he answer. Chris Kemoeatu is solid at LG, and Maurkice Pouncey is outstanding at C, but they don’t have a top-shelf tackle to protect Ben Roethlisberger, even if Max Starks comes back healthy. Carimi could play LT for the Steelers and help make their offensive line even better. One dark horse pick here could be Illinois ILB Martez Wilson to eventually replace James Farrior.
Current NFL Comparison: Andrew Whitworth, Bengals

32. Green Bay Packers Aaron Williams CB Texas
- GM Ted Thompson is always about drafting the best player available, regardless of position. Charles Woodson is nearing the twilight of his career and while Sam Shields was serviceable, the Packers can use someone to team with Tramon Williams in the future, especially if Woodson is going to get some snaps at FS. Williams has size and speed, and broke up 12 passes as a junior as many teams threw away from his side of the field. An offensive tackle like Derrick Sherrod or a defensive lineman such as Christian Ballard could be in order here.
Current NFL Comparison: Jabari Greer, Saints

QB Special Part II: Mallett & Ponder

Picking up from where I left off with QB Special Part I, today I bring you Part II. Today I'll look at Arkansas' Ryan Mallett and Florida State's Christian Ponder.

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas

Tim Tebow was certainly the most polarizing prospect in the 2010 draft, and while I think Cam Newton has Ryan Mallett beat for that same title in the 2011 draft, Mallett is a close second. Mallett entered Michigan as a freshman a semester early, and got to play in several games for the injured Chad Henne in 2007. Lloyd Carr left the Michigan program and Rich Rodriguez came in, promising to bring the spread offense that made Pat White and Steve Slaton so good. Obviously Ryan Mallet, who stands at 6’7” and 253lbs, doesn’t exactly fit the spread QB mold. Mallett transferred to Arkansas and sat out for a season. Presumably, as this “Draft Winds” article will tell you, is where all the rumors about Mallett’s drug use come from, during his year off. There are also tales of him being rather aloof, while at Michigan, as one of “Draft Winds” author Chris Kouffman points out in this interview (apologies for it being on a Miami Dolphins show, but you’ll get to see the whole story on NFL Network’s “Path to the Draft” soon). The links here are to provide you with a more in-depth look at Mallett’s background, and from what the Universal Draft crew has found out, it appears that a lot of these rumors appear to be unsubstantiated, other than his public drunkenness arrest.

The Fit: Picking up from Part I of the Quarterback Special, you’ll remember I had Mallett slated to go to the Vikings at the 12th overall pick. Let me insert the caveat: I think Mallett goes in the first round provided there’s no underlying issues about drugs or his past that the NFL teams have access to. To be clear, many of the teams employ former private eye detectives and FBI and CIA operatives to do background work, and no I’m not kidding. That’s the price you pay when you’re going to invest millions on a college kid. Back on point, assuming Mallett’s background checks out, he’s got the best arm in this draft. While he does come form Bobby Petrino’s offense (see Brian Brohm, Louisville) I think he’ll adjust pretty quickly. He reminds me of Blaine Gabbert in the respect that he’s going to have to learn how to drop back and turn his back to the defense in play action scenarios. However, he’s got a better arm than Gabbert, and throws the deep ball better than any quarterback in this class.

With Minnesota, they have one of the best rush defenses in football. They don’t give up many plays. They can grind clock with Adrian Peterson, and as Brett Favre proved in 2009, they have talent to throw the ball downfield. Sidney Rice, when healthy, is as good a deep threat as there is in the league. Percy Harvin has major talent, and Visanthe Shiancoe has proven he can split the seam. All that crumbled when Favre fell apart in 2010. Minnesota’s left side of their offensive line (Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson) were both once dominant players. They’ve begun their decline. Phil Loadholt and Anthony Herrera on the right side are young, and improving, but they let Brett Favre get hit a lot. That’s my main concern with Mallett here - how does he handle taking punishment. If Minnesota can get improved line play, I really like the way Mallett’s talent can fit into that offense, and new coach Leslie Frazier has stated on multiple occasions that they’re looking for their quarterback of the future.

Strengths and Weaknesses: As I mentioned before, Mallett’s arm strength can’t be questioned, and he’s got decent accuracy, competing 64.7% this past year in Arkansas, up from 55.8% in 2009. Mallett did throw over 400 passes each year, over 100 more attempts than Cam Newton, for comparison in the SEC. Mallett can really throw the deep ball well, and gets pretty good velocity, as you can see in this Sports Science video. However, like Gabbert, Mallett looks very, very, mechanical when going through his drop back steps. I’d imagine he’ll have some issues coming away from the center and getting his feet set when asked to do it a lot in the pros. He’s got long strides, which slow him down, and if you watch some of his game footage, he really sits back on his back foot a lot relying on his arm to bail him out a lot. These flaws are all coachable, and I think it’s something he can do pretty quickly. I certainly think he can play from day one, unlike Newton and Gabbert, especially if he goes to a team like Minnesota who has a running game he can lean on in the early going.

Another thing I don’t like, is that Mallett doesn’t posses much athleticism. Everyone remembers the famous Tom Brady picture from the combine (insert link)…it’s just gross so I’ll only link it if you want to view it. What I’m getting at here is that Mallett looks even worse than Brady does. He’s not mobile, and he doesn’t move well within the pocket, which could spell trouble for him much like it did his predecessor at the University of Michigan, Chad Henne, who suffers from the same flaw.

Value: As I said, Mallett is a pretty polarizing prospect in this draft. I’m sure there’s a team or two that has him as their top rated prospect just as I’m sure there’s a team or two that has already deemed him undraftable. I certainly think he’s got talent - he’s got the prototypical size, arm strength, ability to hit the deep ball, and his accuracy is solid enough to build upon. Most of his game flaws are pretty coachable, and he can remove a lot of them just by getting into better physical shape. Yeah, there are some red flags that have been raised due to off the field “issues” let’s call them, whether they’re true or not.

While Mallett isn’t the poster boy of a franchise the way Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford were when they were coming out of school. If Mallett can put it all together and stays dedicated to staying out of whatever trouble he may or may not have gotten into in the past, I think he’s got the potential to be comparable to what Matt Ryan is with the Atlanta Falcons. I think teams like Minnesota, Miami, Jacksonville in the middle of the first round and even a team like Buffalo or Cincinnati cold tab him, if he lasts that long. Personally, I’d have to think long and hard about taking Mallett in the top ten, which is more to be said than what I think about Newton or Gabbert, but in the end, I’d probably pass on Mallett there as well. This would be doubly true if Andrew Luck were in this draft.


Christian Ponder, Florida State

The Fit: Let’s get something clear right off the bat - Christian Ponder is the most pro-ready quarterback prospect in the entire draft, not just in my top four. That said, Ponder’s been a late-riser in the draft game. Many projected him to be a 2nd or d3rd round pick based solely off his career for the Seminoles. He had an outstanding Senior Bowl week, and didn’t drop off at the combine. A smart guy who has already completed his MBA, he shows great leadership both on and off the field. Ponder’s been able to master Jimbo Fisher’s offensive schemes a Florida State. He’s very adept at play action, he’s got Aaron Rodgers-esque mobility, and he’s familiar with many pro-level passing concepts. While he’s got Rodgers-esque mobility and Chad Pennington-like Football IQ, his arm leaves something to be desired. He’s had shoulder surgery on his throwing arm and underwent two in-season surgeries on his throwing elbow as a senior. For a team that has a sound running game, and wants a good play action game off of it, Ponder is your guy. He’s been linked to Jacksonville for a while, and he’s met with the Dolphins multiple times. They own picks 15 and 16 in the first round. Buffalo and Cincinnati have done their due diligence on him if he does sneak into the second round.

However, I’ve got Ponder projected to go Jacksonville with the 16th overall pick. David Garrard, while solid, is getting older and Ponder just fits what Jacksonville is about. Like Garrard, Ponder possesses the mobility. With a strong running game led by Maurice Jones-Drew and a solid line led by underrated left tackle Eugene Monroe, Ponder should have opportunities to do some damage with weapons like Marcedes Lewis, Mike Thomas, and Mike Sims-Walker, provided Sims-Walker doesn’t leave via free agency. Jacksonville’s defense is solid, and they’ll keep games close, which is what you’d like to have with Ponder at the helm: someone who you can trust to manage the offense and make the big play when you need it.

Strengths and Weaknesses: Again, I’d like to defer you to the “Draft Winds” series as Richard Lines, a former Penn State and Oklahoma running back, gives you an in-depth look at Ponder’s game. There’s definitely some ups and downs in Ponder’s career, but he’s had some rotten luck as well. He first won the quarterback job in Tallahassee behind a very young offensive line and took some lumps. A lot of his talent at receiver graduated after 2009, so he was left with a lot of young guys as a senior. He’s the most experienced of the top four guys I’ve picked, having played in 35 games, and he’s thrown nearly 7,000 passes in his career at FSU. His completion percentage dipped in 2010 from 68.8% down to 61.5%, but that can be attributed to the loss of his older wide receivers.

If you go back to the video of him working out with Blaine Gabbert you’ll notice that Christian Ponder is very smooth, very fluid in his drop backs. He’s very good at play action, and he’s got the ability to crank a deep one here and there (link). As a decision-maker, he’s very good but he’ll get bit every once in a while with what I call “Pennington Syndrome” which means that Ponder will try and stick a throw into a tight window, but he doesn’t physically have the ability to make a particular throw and it ends up incomplete or intercepted.

I think it’s pretty hard for NFL teams to get an accurate read on Ponder because of all the circumstances surrounding his time at Florida State. Much like a Matt Cassell or Mark Sanchez who both played very little ball at USC, Ponder, despite having played 35 games, I don’t know if we’ve yet seen everything he’s capable of putting out there on the field. Cassel and Sanchez have both done well for themselves, Sanchez’s dating game notwithstanding, now that they’re fully in charge of their respective teams. I think Christian Ponder could do the same if he lands in the right situation. For example, if he lands with Cincinnati, I think that’d be disastrous for him. He’d have to carry the whole offense, which is under a new coordinator, Jay Gruden, and has a running back on the decline with an enigmatic #1 receiver in Chad Ochocinco. Definitely not the right spot for him. But, a team like Minnesota, Miami, or Jacksonville could really help the kid out a lot.

Value: I think, given that Ponder is the most pro-ready of these quarterbacks, I’d be most tempted to pick him in the top ten. However, due to his arm limitations, again, I’d have to pass (that makes it 0 for 4 for me in taking one of these guys in the top 10 of the first round). Ponder has to land in the right situation to be successful, but I definitely would want my team to land him over Newton and Gabbert. If a team does get him in round two, I think that’s an absolute boon of a pick, as he can be pressed into action before the other three. I certainly think that he’s capable of giving a team the career of Chad Pennington, which if not for injuries, would’ve been pretty darn good. Let’s also note that Pennington’s primary weakness was throwing the deep ball, but he was intelligent, and for a time, was the NFL’s all-time leader in completion percentage.

Ponder definitely has the tools to work with and could be a very good starting quarterback. I think a solid comparison for him would be Pennington’s brain, Aaron Rodgers’ mobility, and maybe someone like Carson Palmer’s arm post elbow injury. It’s not an outstanding mix, but it’s better than some of the current starters in the NFL today.

Overview

While I wouldn’t personally draft any of the top 4 quarterbacks in the first round if I were the GM of an NFL team, I think there’s some talent to work with. I’d rate Cam Newton as having the highest potential of the 4, but he’s also the most likely to be a bust in my opinion. Ryan Mallett would be the guy I’d want for my team if I were the GM, but it’d be tough to take him over Christian Ponder. Ultimately, I think there’d be a “throwaway year” or two, with Mallett, Gabbert, and Newton, but the payoff could all be higher than Ponder’s. That said, where would these guys really be rated if Andrew Luck were in this class? I certainly don’t think there’d be one in the top 5, but I guess we’ll never know.

The QB Special Part I: Newton & Gabbert

In today’s NFL you must have good quarterback play to win. Look at some of the recent Super Winning teams and their signal-callers. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning; all of them were first round draft picks, save for Drew Brees who was the 32nd overall pick in 2001, when there were only 31 teams in the NFL prior to the Houston Texans joining the league in 2002. All of those names are typically considered top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL. Eli Manning is the only one you might be able to argue, but he knocked off one of, if not the best teams in NFL History, and consistently has the Giants in playoff contention.

The NFL is even more starved for good quarterback play given the number of college programs switching to spread offenses, the scrutiny on quarterbacks has become even more ridiculous. See Tim Tebow, 2010 NFL Draft. This year’s draft is no different with several teams picking in the top half of the first round, including Carolina, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, and Washington in the top 10 alone. Throw in Denver if you really believe new football operations boss, the legendary John Elway, isn’t just trying to throw teams off the Broncos trail by scheduling meetings with Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, and Ryan Mallett despite having Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, and Brady Quinn presently on his roster. I think, I repeat, I think Brett Favre is finally done, and Minnesota has no plans to have Travaris Jackson take over the keys to the franchise. My very own Miami Dolphins have let it be known they want to bring in competition for incumbent Chad Henne. Jacksonville has also spent time with quarterbacks in the pre-draft process, and has been linked quite a bit to Florida State’s Christian Ponder. That’s 11 of 16 teams in the top half of the first round with questions, albeit some are milder than others, at the quarterback position – more than a third of the league.

In the 2010 draft, only two quarterbacks went in the first round: Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow. We saw three in 2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman. So, that’s a grand total of five in the past two years and seven in the past three years counting Atlanta’s Matt Ryan and Baltimore’s Joe Flacco from the 2008 draft. This year, the general consensus seems to be that at least three quarterbacks – Auburn’s Cam Newton, Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert and Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett – seem set to go in the first round. The aforementioned Christian Ponder has been a hot name in the draftnik world, and many think he might go in the first as well, getting heavy interest from Miami and Jacksonville, and plenty of rumors are swirling that top 10 teams, such as Washington, may try and trade back and tab him in the latter part of round one.

If you believe ESPN’s Adam Schefter, and his track record seems to be pretty good, he’s been calling Auburn’s Cam Newton to be drafted first overall by the Carolina Panthers for a while now. Let’s not forget Schefter pegged the Rams taking Sam Bradford over Ndamukong Suh last year about this time. So, with Newton pegged to go #1, I’d like to take a look at my top 4 quarterbacks, and ask, are they really worth the first round? Or, are they just a product of need? As I’ve discussed already, the demand outweighs the supply.

To start off, let’s get my top 4 quarterbacks straightened out. In no particular order, they are Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, and Christian Ponder. Todd McShay’s (Todd McFraud, as I call him, though I’ve seen McFaketan as well, which is pretty good) love children Jake Locker and Andy Dalton don’t make my list. However, even those two have been linked to the late first round, with Seattle in particular. I don’t think I’d touch either of them before round three personally. Jake Locker’s got everything you want, except accuracy. His career completion percentage at Washington is 54% so let’s throw him out. Andy Dalton comes from Justin Fuente’s offense at TCU, which doesn’t really lend itself to any NFL system aside from the West Coast offense, which has probably triggered the Seattle rumors. I’ll defer you to the Draft Winds article on him in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

Draft Winds is a weekly column geared toward the Miami Dolphins compiled by the staff of Universal Draft. The staff consists of Chris Kouffman, Richard Lines, and Simon Clancy, and their work has been mentioned nationally in Sports Illustrated, by SI’s Peter King, Dan Patrick, and they’ll be appearing on NFL Network’s “Path to the Draft” show to discuss Ryan Mallett – more on that later. Let’s be clear, they definitely know their stuff.

So, now that I’ve eliminated Locker and Dalton, onto the top four. My mock draft will be unveiled soon, but as of right now – Tuesday – and this is still subject to change, I’ve got the quarterbacks getting drafted as follows:

Cam Newton to Carolina – 1st overall
Blaine Gabbert to San Francisco – 7th overall
Ryan Mallett to Minnesota – 12th overall
Christian Ponder to Jacksonville – 16th overall

This probably isn’t what you were expecting if you’ve read mock drafts from around the Internet. My goal with this is to explain why I think each player will go where I have them slotted; discuss their strengths and weaknesses; and give you my opinion on whether or not they’ll represent good value in the NFL.

Cam Newton, Auburn

The Fit: I’ve got him pegged to the Panthers for several reasons. First, you have to respect what Adam Schefter’s heard from his NFL circles – he’s very well connected and projecting him to Carolina says a lot. Secondly, Carolina owner Jerry Richardson said shortly after the regular season that he’d take Stanford’s Andrew Luck if he entered the draft. Luck did not, but it still says something that the owner has a genuine interest in a quarterback a year after selecting Jimmy Clausen in the second round. That leads me to point number three. Coach John Fox is gone. Ron Rivera is in, and when coaching changes occur, they usually like to bring in their own guys and their own players. Ron Rivera has a unique situation where he can bring in his own guy at QB, presumably Cam Newton, while having another youngster in Jimmy Clausen on his roster. That gives you some room to operate with, and it reminds me of the situation the Chargers faced when they drafted Philip Rivers while having Drew Brees on the roster. If you’ll remember, Brees’ first three seasons in the NFL weren’t anything spectacular. Obviously Clausen hasn’t been around for three season’s as Brees was, but the situation is similar. Carolina, who is most likely to be losing one of their most recognizable players, RB DeAngelo Williams, and has been rumored to be shopping aging WR Steve Smith, could definitely draw fans back with the polarizing Newton. This pick makes a lot of sense, provided you think Cam Newton will be successful at the NFL level.

Strengths and Weaknesses: Personally, I have a hard time believing Cam Newton will have success at the NFL level. Initially. All the guy’s done is win everywhere he goes from high school, to Blinn Junior College, and onto a Heisman Winning year at Auburn where he brought home the BCS National Championship. For an in-depth analysis on Newton, I’d like to defer you to the article in the “Draft Winds” series composed by the Universal Draft guys in the Sun-Sentinel. Here’s the link.

As I said, very thorough, outstanding research and excellent work – their stuff is outstanding and I look forward to their article every week. Back to Newton; yeah he took some laptops while at Florida. Yes, he referred to himself as an “icon”. True, he does come from Gus Malzahn’s spread offense at Auburn where he was generally asked to make one or two reads and then run – it won’t be that simple in the NFL. However…

Value: Cam Newton has the 2nd best arm of these top 4 quarterbacks in the draft, trailing only Ryan Mallett. Newton, despite only playing one year in the always tough Southeastern Conference, registered a completion percentage of 66.1% in 280 attempts, which is a lot higher than you’d expect, and higher than Vince Young’s (the prospect most people compare Newton to) outstanding 2005 season; Newton had more touchdown passes as well. Newton is the classic “Boom or Bust” prospect, and his ceiling is certainly higher than any of the other three quarterbacks I’ve mentioned. His floor is a lot lower though as well.

While on most total draft boards, Alabama DT Marcel Dareus is the consensus number one ranked player – both offense or defense – I have hard time not seeing Cam Newton’s name being called by the Panthers (assuming they don’t try to trade the 1st overall pick, which is very unlikely). Carolina can afford to take this risk because they still have 2010 second round pick Jimmy Clausen on the roster. While Cam Newton is certainly the more gifted player, he doesn’t come a pro-style offense like Clausen, and I anticipate it will take Newton some time to get acclimated to the pro game. Ultimately I think Newton will take several weeks to get ready, but ultimately, if Carolina selects him, I expect him to play at some point in the 2011 season. And based on what Judge Nelson said and hinted at yesterday, there’s going to be a 2011 season. I think that Cam Newton’s career is going to be very interesting to watch, and will be somewhat better than what Vince Young’s done so far (Young’s record is a solid 30-17). That said, if I’m a GM, I don’t pull the trigger on Newton unless I already have a veteran quarterback to develop him behind, especially in round one.

Blaine Gabbert, Missouri

Gabbert’s been projected by many to be the first overall pick in the draft. Let me make one thing clear – I don’t think he’s worth that at all. Ask yourself, who would the Carolina Panthers have taken had Stanford’s Andrew Luck declared? Trick question, they said they’d take Luck right after the regular season, and if you believe the draft rumor mills, Gabbert only declared this year because Luck didn’t. To expound upon that, if Luck were in this class, I’d have a hard time valuing Newton and Gabbert in the top 10 due to the influx of talented defensive players. But alas, Luck will have to wait until 2012, or 2013 since he’s only a junior.

The Fit: I’ve currently got Blaine Gabbert slated to slide to the 49ers who own the 7th overall pick. Jim Harbaugh needs a quarterback out there with Alex and Troy Smith proving they’re not capable of driving that team to the playoffs despite having some outstanding weapons. Of the quarterbacks I’ve selected for this mock, this might be the one I’m most inclined to change. Gabbert’s completion percentage on throws traveling further than 15 yards is a measly 38% - not good.

I think a lot of the projections basing Gabbert going first overall over Newton are there for a few reasons. First, unless something pops up in the next three weeks he’s got no off-field issues that I’m aware of, which is a strike against Newton for normally conservative owner Jerry Richardson. Secondly, by all accounts Newton’s individual team interviews have gone very well, but I hear that Gabbert has been exceptional, especially in chalk-talk sessions (X’s & O’s); more on that later. Lastly, Gabbert’s learning curve, while steeper than Mallett’s and Ponder’s is probably less steep than Newton’s, meaning Gabbert will likely see the field sooner. This assuming that neither is thrown directly into the fire, which I would vehemently argue that any team that drafts them not do despite the successes of other rookie quarterbacks in recent years.

Now, for San Francisco, new coach Jim Harbaugh was fortunate enough to have Andrew Luck at Stanford. Luck is the total package of accuracy, arm strength, intelligence, athleticism, leadership, intelligence, and intelligence (did that on purpose). Gabbert has a lot of those same qualities, but not to the level of Luck. But, his game is similar in the fact that he’s smart, accurate underneath (Harbaugh runs a West Coast style predicated on short routes, crossing routes, hitches, slants, quick outs, etc. all of which were staples in Gary Pinkel’s offense at Missouri). Thus, Gabbert is more familiar with this than any other quarterback. If Gabbert can learn the drops, playaction steps, and fakes necessary to go with the Power I running game that Harbaugh will instill, he’ll have some success. Strengths and Weaknesses: Hailing from Gary Pinkel’s spread system from Missouri, as Alen mentioned in our guru interview earlier in the week; Missouri’s offense is predicated on short routes with vertical tags associated with them. For example, see this play at about the 1:00 minute mark, you’ll notice a route called “hitch n’ go”. There’s the vertical tag. In this video, Mizzou is in the redzone, but this is their concept all over the field, due to Gabbert’s deficiency in deep ball accuracy.

Another thing that will stunt Gabbert’s development early is his transition to taking snaps under center. The 3 step, 5 step, 5 quick, 7 step, and play actions will take time to learn as Gabbert came mostly from the shotgun. In this clip, you can watch Gabbert and FSU’s Christian Ponder doing the same drop drills. Christian Ponder, who comes from a pro style offense looks very fluid, very natural. You can tell Gabbert is thinking about his drop steps, as opposed to the “catch, rock, and throw” he was accustomed to at Missouri. Though Gabbert says his drops feel more natural in the video, it’s still not where you’d like it to be. This will take some more time, but ultimately I think he can get it down.

Where Gabbert will succeed depends on what system he’s drafted into. If it’s a place like San Francisco, where he can use his successful short and intermediate game, it will help his development. He’s got a decent amount of starting experience with 26 games, and has 933 attempts in 31 career games. While that’s not the kind of starting production that historically has succeeded in the NFL, it is close. He’s certainly got some things to work on, but his floor is higher than Cam Newton’s.

Value: Gabbert is a “safer” prospect than Cam Newton, but I’m not so sure he’ll be as good as Newton. His completion percentage is lower, which is surprising as he played in the notoriously wide open Big 12 Conference. I think it’s also safe to value Gabbert as a top 12 player in this draft, though personally, I don’t think I’d pull the trigger on him in the top 10 of the first round. I think he’s definitely a system player, and if you ask him to become the next Ben Roethlisberger, you might be in trouble. His deep-ball accuracy isn’t anywhere close, and he’s not as physical when he takes off in the run game. Strangely enough, he reminds me somewhat of Mark Sanchez, with more mobility, but not quite as good of an arm. Say what you want about Sanchez, but the guy is clutch.

I think Gabbert has some of the tools to be successful in the NFL, and he’s go the right temperament to develop some of the ones he lacks. Again, I have to stress that he’s a system guy in my opinion, and that I wouldn’t take him in the top 10.

I'll have Part II up soon with coverage on Ryan Mallett and Christian Ponder.