KD's NFL Draft Grades - Carolina Panthers

With the lockout in full effect, there's little to really cover in the way of the NFL other than reviewing the NFL Draft. While most experts say it usually takes 3 full seasons to grade a draft class, and I agree, we can have a little fun and grade each team for their selections made nearly a month ago. I figured I'd grade each team based on their pick in order in the 1st round, starting with the Carolina Panthers, and go from there. What I'd like to do is to examine in-depth each team's 1st round, or first overall pick; how the player fits in with the team; and his professional outlook. For each subsequent pick, I'll go over a brief synopsis of the player and how he'll fit in, then I'll assign a letter grade for the team's total draft haul at the conclusion of the review.

Here are the Carolina Panther's Draft selections:

1) Cam Newton - QB - Auburn
GM Marty Hurney went for the shock value here by taking Cam Newtown with the first overall pick. While some, in fact probably most, will disagree, I think this was a solid move on the Panthers part. Jimmy Clausen really struggled last year, though he didn't have many weapons around him, and new coaches typically mean new quarterbacks. Cam Newton has the most "upside" of any of the ones selected in the 2011 Draft. While I wouldn't start him this year, at all, Newton will have a more discernable impact over the course of his career than would have a Marcel Dareus or Patrick Peterson. That said, Ryan Mallett, if not for off-field issues, is the most pro-ready quarterback and could've (should've?) been taken here if not for those said issues.

How he fits in: While I wouldn't start him right off the bat, especially since he's not getting additional run time in OTAs and rookie mini-camps, new coach Ron Rivera might not have a choice. Jimmy Clausen just doesn't have it all together, and never has (sorry Notre Dame fans) and I don't think Matt Moore or Tony Pike would provide much in the way of competition, so I'd expect Newton to be named their day one starter barring something unexpected.

Outlook: If Newton works as hard as he says he's going to work I think he can have a career path somewhere in between Vince Young and Michael Vick. I don't like mentioning those two names, but he's most similar to them than any other NFL quarterbacks. Newton will have to work on such things as taking direct snaps, calling plays properly in the huddle, all kinds of drop backs, reads, triangle reads, etc. But he can still make plays with his feet, and that's what makes him so dangerous. Also, keep in mind that Vince Young's record as a starting quarterback is a solid 30-17. I think Newton was the right pick, but maybe not the best pick.

3rd Round, 65th overall) Terrell McClain - DT - South Florida
The Panthers got hosed by the Patriots and had traded their 2nd round pick in the 2010 Draft to take WR Armanti Edwards...you know him best as the Appalachian State quarterback who upset Michigan. So, the Panthers second pick in the 2011 Draft came in the form of Terrell McClain, a 6'1" 291lbs DT. Ron Rivera made his hay in the NFL by operating the small, quick Chicago Bears defenses of the early-mid 2000s that were very good, and he's building upon some solid front seven players here with the Panthers. What the Panther's really lacked was a solid defensive tackle who is quick and can penetrate in a 1-gap scheme. That's what McClain will bring to the table, and he's a sure tackler. The main knock on him is that he lacks a motor, and has a lot of trouble getting off blocks if he can't shoot a gap. However, looking at what the Panthers have there, and really it's only Ed Johnson, McClain should have a good shot at starting from day one.

3rd round, 97th overall) Sione Fua - DT - Stanford
Again, the Panthers dipped into the DT well here taking Sione Fua, who I had rated higher than McClain. Fua, a NT in college at Stanford is 6'1" 310lbs and his very strong at the point of attack. He's not as quick or athletic as McClain, who figures to be a 3-technique DT, but he's able to hold his ground better against the run and I think he's more suited to play alongside either McClain or Ed Johnson. Fua has shown an ability to play through trash and collapse the pocket registering 4.5 sacks as a senior. Fua should definitely make the roster and be a solid rotational player on the D-line as a rookie.

4th round, 98th overall) Brandon Hogan - CB - West Virginia
The Panthers have one rock-solid corner in Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall has shown flashes at times, though he's still not reliable opposite Gamble. Aside from those two vets, the Panthers have a bunch of young guys who are primarily nickel/slot and dime players - certainly none who you'd want to have to start. Hogan fits that Ron Rivera Cover 2 corner mold and will remind some people of Charles Tillman from the Bears. Hogan's an experience corner who is not afraid to come up and support the run collecting 171 career tackles in 44 games. He's versatile with the ball in his hand when he makes an interception, seven career, which tallied 156 return yards. For Hogan, I think he can be a nickel corner from day one, but his prospects of starting hinge more on Richard Marshall than himself.

5th round, 132nd overall) Kealoah Pilares - WR - Hawaii
Over the past few years, we've seen a rise in teams taking receivers from June Jones' spread system in Hawaii and now at SMU. Davone Bess of Miami and Emmanuel Sanders of Pittsburgh have led the way, and now Pilares and Aldrick Robinson (Redskins) have added to the total. Pialres came to Hawaii as a running back and had over 100 carries his first two years. However, he shifted to wide receiver and just started hauling passes left and right - a product of the Jones spread - and when all was said and done he caught 209 passes for nearly 2,500 yards and 22 scores. He'll be best served in the slot, as Bess and Sanders have before him, and should push the likes of Armanti Edwards and David Clowney down the roster a bit, but it's still no guarantee he makes the team.

6th round, 166th overall) Lawrence Wilson - LB - Connecticut
The Panthers have a solid starting trio of Jon Beason, James Anderson, and Thomas Davis, but there's not much in the way of depth behind them. Wilson should make a solid addition to the team as one of the Ron Rivera undersized, coverage linebackers in the mold of a Hunter Hillenmeyer or Freddie Roach did in Chicago. Wilson's only 6'0" 229lbs, but he's got pretty good range and can deliver a big hit. He's got a propensity to go for the kill shot and miss a tackle here and there, but that's something coachable. Wilson should stick and will be able to make a mark on special teams with his speed and athleticism.

6th round, 203rd overall) Zack Williams - C - Washington State
The Panthers have an oustanding center in Ryan Kalil, but he'd be scheduled to be a free agent under the 2010 rules of the CBA. The Panthers have expressed interest in keeping him over RB DeAngelo Williams to continue to anchor their line. Williams represents an insurance policy, but a weak one at that. At 6'3" 309lbs he's a bit bigger than Kalil and might be better served at RG as he's non-athletic. Williams may be a pratice squad candidate depending on what happens with Ryan Kalil and starting left guard Travelle Wharton, but it'll be a long time before we ever see Williams snapping to Cam Newton.

7th round, 244th overall) Lee Ziemba - T - Auburn
A solid player for the Auburn Tigers, a 4-year start, 3 of which came at left tackle, Ziemba's draft stock took a major hit as he had short arms and didn't look very good at all at the NFL Combine. However, the Panthers needed a better swing tackle (the 3rd offensive tackle kept active on gamedays that can play either side should a starter go down) than Geoff Schwartz. Ziemba will get to learn from a solid veteran in Jordan Gross, and could eventually be granfathered into the O-line. I think he stands a better chance to make the roster than Zack Williams, especially if Ziemba can shift to play G as well, giving him 3 positions he can play.

Overall Grade: B-
Marty Hurney will ultimately be measured by Cam Newton, as he'll make or break this class for sure. The Panthers didn't really address getting a playmaker at WR and who knows how long Steve Smith will be around or if Brandon LaFell will improve there. Right now, Jeremy Shockey stands to be their starting TE, and he's getting long in the tooth, and they still don't know what they have to get after the passer in DEs Charles Johnson and Everette Brown. Those things aside, the Panthers repaired a major hole in the middle of the defensive line, added a potential starting CB, and got some versatility and depth in the linebacking corp and on the O-line. Cam Newton could give them a solid franchise quarterback for the future...or he could cost Marty Hurney his job. As it stands, I'll give Carolina a B- for taking a chance on Newton, but failing to get him a playmaker. This class definitely bears watching down the road, and I have a feeling the final grade may rise in the not so distant future.

Next up, the Denver Broncos.

KD's Draft Guru Interview

For those that don’t know me, despite being born in and living 23 of my 25 years in Cincinnati, Ohio, and working for their only player inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, I am not a Bengals fan. I am a Miami Dolphins fan. I have been since Thanksgiving Day 1993 when the Dolphins, sans Dan Marino who was out with an Achilles injury, beat the Cowboys (thank you Leon Lett), in Dallas 16 – 14. Every boy in my 2nd grade class had a Dallas Cowboys Starter jacket – hell, I did too. I got rid of it after that game and I have religiously followed the Dolphins ever since. Needless to say, Miami was 9-2 after that Cowboys game, and promptly loss their last 5 games to miss the playoffs. I suffered through that. Dan Marino’s last game was played on my 15th birthday – a 62-7 loss at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2nd round of the playoffs that I thought I’d blocked from my memory. I guess not. I made it through the Cam Cameron 1-15 season and joined a Dolphins message board that year. I’m a pretty frequent visitor, and through the forums there, I came to know Alen Dumonjic, a then 18-year old who knew more about football than anyone else I’ve ever met, including me, and my friends would tell you that I myself probably know way too much as it is.

Alen is truly a student of the game and could tell you about the intricacies of Bill Walsh’s West Coast Offense (which was practiced when Walsh was a Bengals assistant, and perfected by some guy named Montana out in San Francisco), to the Air Coryell offense run by Dan Fouts and the Chargers, to the Dolphins “Wildcat” offense, which has been around since the 1940s – known as the Single Wing then - contrary to what ESPN would have you believe. But I digress. One of the things that many of the forum visitors turn to Alen for is his knowledge of the draft. Alen’s been known to frequent the East-West Shrine Bowl practices, and his knowledge never disappoints.

For more on the X’s and O’s of the game, check out his blog – it’s a must read for football junkies – www.footballpressbox.blogspot.com – thank me later.

Alen was kind enough to answer some draft-related questions for us now that the draft is only 22 days away (boy that looming Labor Issue makes it seem further away doesn’t it?). Here’s what he had to say:

TGTS: As someone who follows college football and the draft process very closely, what factors do you often look at when grading your prospects? Is it program pedigree, the player's makeup, 40 times, team interviews, or is it a combination of all things?

AD: First you have your positional analysis. You look at different things for each position obviously but in general, I look for the makeup of the player, I look how he handles the team, how he handles his duties at his position and I look at what scheme or philosophy he comes from and then last of all, I'll look at what he's faced. 

TGTS: This year's draft is somewhat top-heavy with quarterbacks in Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, both of whom come from more open, spread offenses that are prevalent in college football. Does that make those prospects harder to evaluate than QBs who come from a pro-style offense such as Christian Ponder and Andrew Luck? 

Yes, they are a bit harder to grade because of the offense they come from. Blaine Gabbert comes from a very wide open and simplistic offense that relies on comeback routes and hitches that are tagged onto vertical routes. They really like to spread themselves out and create mismatches by using the receiving threat all over the field. Christian Ponder is viewed as a pro-style quarterback because he worked a lot under center and he comes from an offense that is a lot of 3 and 5 step game with triangle reads; read one side of the field and work it. That's a stepping stone in the development of the quarterback and then from there, you can read the entire field when you get good. Guys like Andrew Luck can do everything. He's really a fantastic quarterback because he sees the field so well and has such great control over the offense.  

TGTS: Obviously many people know some of the big names in the draft, such as Ingram, Newton, Fairley, Peterson, etc. Who are some of your mid-later round prospects that you have your eye on?

AD: Prospects that I have my eye on in the mid to later rounds include quarterback Greg McElroy, quarterback Ben Chappell, running back Delone Carter, running back Jamie Harper, running back Bilal Powell, running back Evan Royster, running back Damien Berry, wide receiver Vincent Brown, wide receiver Ryan Whalen, wide receiver Dane Sanzenbacher, wide receiver Aldrick Robinson. 

On the defensive side of the ball, nose tackle Sione Fua, linebacker Mark Herzlich, cornerback Davon House, cornerback Brandyn Thompson, cornerback Kendrick Burney, cornerback/safety Marcus GIlchrist, safeties Eric Hagg and Jaiqwuan Jarrett. 

A lot of the guys I list above have some good talent that can be improved upon and made into contributing players. McElroy is well known but Indiana's Ben Chappell has flown under the radar. His decision making is sometimes in question but he sees the field very well. Running back Bilal Powell reminds me of James Starks up in Green Bay as they have the same running style. Wide receivers Vincent Brown, Ryan Whalen and Dane Sanzenbacher are all guys who are the cookie-cutter route runners who understand the game and have good hands. All three work hard and are overachievers. Aldrick Robinson has talent but he needs to continue to work hard. 

Defensively, Sione Fua is somewhat reminiscent of Aubrayo Franklin out in San Francisco. Mark Herzlich is well known and has a lot of talent. How far has he come from his recovery of cancer? How will it affect him at the next level? For a guy who works so hard, you might be tempted to take a chance on him somewhere in round four or five. Cornerback Davon House has flown under the radar because he's out in New Mexico State but he's a quality talent that has a ton of upside. He's durable and is tough. Big fan of his. Brandyn Thompson is somewhat forgotten because he's not all that big but he's got some Asante Samuel qualities in his game. I think he may surprise some people. Burney is a Cover 2 Buc corner; a hard corner who can play nickel and cover the flats. Gilchrist is versatile while Jarrett and Hagg are smart, tough players. 

TGTS: You're the Carolina Panthers...the GM has mandated you draft a defensive player, so who do you take between Marcel Dareus, Patrick Peterson, Von Miller, Nick Fairley, or someone else and why?

AD: I select Marcel Dareus out of Alabama because he's the best player from that group. He's a hard working defensive tackle that has versatility in the way that he can play most positions on the line and he's a damn good player. He's explosive, tough, can play the run and as I said, is versatile. In some ways, he is similar to Richard Seymour but he's not as dominant as Seymour is/was. 

Nick Fairley has too many questions and not enough on his resume for me. Patrick Peterson is a good cornerback that has a lot of natural talent but he needs to work on his technique. He can't forever rely on his natural talents. Von Miller is a very talented player but I think that he needs work as a pass rusher. He's going to be a good player in this league and he will make someone happy but I'd rather have Dareus.

TGTS: Some teams, like the Eagles and Patriots, who have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds, often trade down and/or trade players for future picks. What do you think of this strategy, and does it help or hinder teams like that when you have so many rookies?

AD: I am a big fan of the strategy because I think you need to stick to your board. If the player(s) you don't want are there, move the pick. Teams sometimes end up forcing the selection and are not happy with the outcome. The Patriots have a strict board and a smaller one than other teams. Runs about 90 players and Belichick likes to use the old Jimmy Johnson strategy of picking out guys from the draft that he likes and then if the guy is not there, get rid of the pick. 

I think if you keep the picks, it does hinder your team because you end up being very young. To be successful in the NFL, you need to have a good blend of veterans and younger guys. That way the young guys can learn and are not pressured into the lineup but are still contributors. 

TGTS: We saw the Packers win a Super Bowl with a RB drafted in the 6th round; Arian Foster led the league and rushing and went undrafted, as did LeGarrette Blount. Do you think teams are abandoning taking RBs early because it's an easy position to fix, or is there additional value in drafting someone highly - such as guys like Mark Ingram and Mikel Leshoure figure to be this year?

AD: I think it’s a little bit of both. The running back position is one that has a short career and a lot of the players at that position can be replaced when you have a strong offensive line. Taking a running back high, like Ingram or LeShoure, has value because some of the running backs you take high likely have a trait that separates them from other tailbacks. For example, instincts, the ability to find the cutback lane at a higher rate than others, the ability to hit the homerun. The homerun is not something that's common in the NFL so when you have a guy that can break it every now and then, you consider taking him higher than you would other running backs. Guys like Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson fit that criteria. 

TGTS: Aside from Andrew Luck, give us 5 potential draft prospects you're looking forward to seeing in the 2012 draft.

AD:

Seniors only list

1. Ryan Lindley, QB, San Diego St.
2. Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma
3. Jared Crick, DT, Nebraska
4. Tank Carder, LB, TCU
5. Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
Potential underclassmen

1. Matt Barkley, QB, USC
2. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
3. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
4. Chase Thomas, LB, Stanford
5. Josh Robinson, CB, UCF

A big thanks goes out to Alen for helping us with this interview. I’ll have some more about the NFL Draft coming up soon, including my take on the Big 4 QBs in the draft – Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton, and Christian Ponder (no, Jake Locker is NOT one, sorry Todd McShay), as well as a mock draft coming up towards the weekend.