KD's NFL Draft Grades - Indianapolis Colts

When you have Peyton Manning, who's now weilding a new $90M contract, your team always has a chance, and with the Colts offense getting some players back healthy in 2011, such as Joseph Addai, Anthony Gonzalez, and Austin Collie, they should be potent. GM Bill Polian and owner Jim Irsay said they were going to improve the offensive line after the Colts lost to the Saints in the Super Bowl. That didn't happen in 2010, but it did happen in the 2011 Draft. With just 5 picks, the Colts addressed a couple of needs and got, in my opinion, two steals in the latter rounds of the Draft. Let's see who they got.

1st round, 22nd overall) Anthony Castonzo - T - Boston College
Since the retirement of Tarik Glenn, Peyton Manning hasn't had a top tier protector on his blind side. Look at some of the other quarterbacks in the league. Philip Rivers has Marcus McNeill; Tom Brady has Matt Light; Aaron Rodgers has Chad Clifton and soon to be Bryan Bulaga; Jake Long has...oh, wait. Either way, Peyton Manning deserves better than Charlie Johnson, who has played well, but is a more natural guard.

How he fits in: It shouldn't be too hard for the big man from Boston College to win the starting LT spot from day one. Charlie Johnson might be able to hold him off for a while, but it it's really just a matter of time. Castonzo, who stands at 6'7" 311lbs isn't quite in the same class as Trent Williams and Russell Okung from last year's class, but he's very good in his own right, and in my opinion, the best left tackle in this year's clast. He's got some nastiness to him in the run game, and Peyton Manning's quick reads and throws will mask some deficiencies in his pass sets.

Outlook: A biochemistry major who was nominated for the Rhodes Scholarship, it's safe to say Castonzo is very smart, and he's also got a high football IQ on the field. He's got a prototypical build, and while not as athletic as some guys with his build, he's long enough to reroute defensive ends. Has to learn to play with better leverage. Castonzo played against a lot of top competition including Derrick Morgan, Allen Bailey, Robert Quinn, and Da'Quan Bowers during his college years in the ACC. He'll be a starter for a long time in the NFL.

2nd round, 49th overall) Ben Ijalana - G - Villanova
Similar in many ways to Jets 2010 pick Vladimir Ducasse, Ijalana comes from the FCS (formerly Division I-AA) where he started 53 straight games for the Wildcats. Ijalana played LT in college, but with a shorter build at 6'3" 317lbs, he'll probably have to be groomed at G. The Colts have a few prospects on the interior with Mike Pollak, Kyle DeVan, and Jeff Linkenbach, but none are really dominant interior players. Ijalana is pretty athletic for his size, but will be making a tremendous jump in competition. I'd expect he probably won't start right away, but he could phase out either Pollak or DeVan, eventually. He could surpass Jeff Linkenbach as a top backup this season.

3rd Round, 87th overall) Drake Nevis - DT - LSU
If not for Nick Fairley's burst into national prominence during his senior season, one of the SEC players we all would have been talking about on the D-line would've been Nevis. Antonio Johnson and Daniel Muir got the job done last year on the Colts interior, but Muir was just signed by the Rams, potentially clearing the path for Nevis to start early on. Eric Foster and Fili Moala are decent role players and DeMario Pressley was recently added, but Nevis could be the best of that role-playing bunch. He's a prototypical tackle for the Colts; undersized, quick, and very experienced coming out of college. At 6'0" 294lbs, Nevis racked up 24 TFL's and 10 sacks the past two years for the Tigers. Very quick and athletic for his size on the interior, clocking a 5.06 forty in Indy at the Combine.

4th round, 119th overall) Delone Carter - RB - Syracuse
The Colts were able to bring back Joseph Addai at a favorable contract. He and Donald Brown are a nice tandem, but both have had issues staying healthy. Dominic Rhodes, Mike Hart, Devin Moore, Javarris James (cousin of former Colt great Edgerrin James), will likely compete for the 4th running back spot, i.e. a special teamer who might be active on game day. Addai and Brown are the top guys, but I think Delone Carter locks down the third spot and could be a starter by season's end. A 5'8" 222lbs wall of muscle, Carter plays a lot bigger than he his and should get all of the short yardage carries right off the bat. He's got decent hands out of the backfield and shows decent change of direction skills for a man his size. Carter had some off-field issues and was kicked off the team for a year, but was reinstated and ripped off back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons. This will be the Colts future at RB, a lot more so than Donald Brown, and he should be a nice addition to the Colts offense this weekend.

6th round, 188th overall) Chris Rucker - CB - Michigan State
Rucker had several off-field incidents at MSU, his most recent including getting involved in a dorm-room brawl as a senior, and he also had several alcohol related incidents on campus. Coach Mark Dantonio suspsended him briefly as a senior, but he was surely the Spartans best defensive back. At 6'0" 195lbs, he's not overly quick, but he's very good in man-to-man coverage and is at his best when he can be physical up on the line. He's a very good tackler and isn't afraid to come up in run support and is definitely a gamer. Jeraud Powers and Jacob Lacey will probably be starters, but Rucker should push for playing time in nickel and dime packages with the release of Kelvin Hayden. Provided Rucker can keep his nose clean off the field, he's got a lot of potential and should it in very well in the Colts cover 2 scheme where he can be physical up close to the line of scrimmage.

Overall Grade: A-
I have to give the Colts credit, they identified some of their biggest weaknesses and addressed them. Overall though, what they did in the draft paled in comparison to the importance of re-signing Peyton Manning. They scratched that off their list, and despite his not being 100% healthy, he'll be fine for the regular season. Anthony Castonzo and Drake Nevis look like they'll be the only two rookies to start off this year. However, Ijalana, Carter, and Rucker all have the potential to contribute in specific packages or in depth roles right away. Each of those three also has the potential to start down the road. Despite having limited picks, the Colts turned in some nice names that will be able to contribute to the team both now, and in the future.

KD's Draft Guru Interview

For those that don’t know me, despite being born in and living 23 of my 25 years in Cincinnati, Ohio, and working for their only player inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, I am not a Bengals fan. I am a Miami Dolphins fan. I have been since Thanksgiving Day 1993 when the Dolphins, sans Dan Marino who was out with an Achilles injury, beat the Cowboys (thank you Leon Lett), in Dallas 16 – 14. Every boy in my 2nd grade class had a Dallas Cowboys Starter jacket – hell, I did too. I got rid of it after that game and I have religiously followed the Dolphins ever since. Needless to say, Miami was 9-2 after that Cowboys game, and promptly loss their last 5 games to miss the playoffs. I suffered through that. Dan Marino’s last game was played on my 15th birthday – a 62-7 loss at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2nd round of the playoffs that I thought I’d blocked from my memory. I guess not. I made it through the Cam Cameron 1-15 season and joined a Dolphins message board that year. I’m a pretty frequent visitor, and through the forums there, I came to know Alen Dumonjic, a then 18-year old who knew more about football than anyone else I’ve ever met, including me, and my friends would tell you that I myself probably know way too much as it is.

Alen is truly a student of the game and could tell you about the intricacies of Bill Walsh’s West Coast Offense (which was practiced when Walsh was a Bengals assistant, and perfected by some guy named Montana out in San Francisco), to the Air Coryell offense run by Dan Fouts and the Chargers, to the Dolphins “Wildcat” offense, which has been around since the 1940s – known as the Single Wing then - contrary to what ESPN would have you believe. But I digress. One of the things that many of the forum visitors turn to Alen for is his knowledge of the draft. Alen’s been known to frequent the East-West Shrine Bowl practices, and his knowledge never disappoints.

For more on the X’s and O’s of the game, check out his blog – it’s a must read for football junkies – www.footballpressbox.blogspot.com – thank me later.

Alen was kind enough to answer some draft-related questions for us now that the draft is only 22 days away (boy that looming Labor Issue makes it seem further away doesn’t it?). Here’s what he had to say:

TGTS: As someone who follows college football and the draft process very closely, what factors do you often look at when grading your prospects? Is it program pedigree, the player's makeup, 40 times, team interviews, or is it a combination of all things?

AD: First you have your positional analysis. You look at different things for each position obviously but in general, I look for the makeup of the player, I look how he handles the team, how he handles his duties at his position and I look at what scheme or philosophy he comes from and then last of all, I'll look at what he's faced. 

TGTS: This year's draft is somewhat top-heavy with quarterbacks in Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, both of whom come from more open, spread offenses that are prevalent in college football. Does that make those prospects harder to evaluate than QBs who come from a pro-style offense such as Christian Ponder and Andrew Luck? 

Yes, they are a bit harder to grade because of the offense they come from. Blaine Gabbert comes from a very wide open and simplistic offense that relies on comeback routes and hitches that are tagged onto vertical routes. They really like to spread themselves out and create mismatches by using the receiving threat all over the field. Christian Ponder is viewed as a pro-style quarterback because he worked a lot under center and he comes from an offense that is a lot of 3 and 5 step game with triangle reads; read one side of the field and work it. That's a stepping stone in the development of the quarterback and then from there, you can read the entire field when you get good. Guys like Andrew Luck can do everything. He's really a fantastic quarterback because he sees the field so well and has such great control over the offense.  

TGTS: Obviously many people know some of the big names in the draft, such as Ingram, Newton, Fairley, Peterson, etc. Who are some of your mid-later round prospects that you have your eye on?

AD: Prospects that I have my eye on in the mid to later rounds include quarterback Greg McElroy, quarterback Ben Chappell, running back Delone Carter, running back Jamie Harper, running back Bilal Powell, running back Evan Royster, running back Damien Berry, wide receiver Vincent Brown, wide receiver Ryan Whalen, wide receiver Dane Sanzenbacher, wide receiver Aldrick Robinson. 

On the defensive side of the ball, nose tackle Sione Fua, linebacker Mark Herzlich, cornerback Davon House, cornerback Brandyn Thompson, cornerback Kendrick Burney, cornerback/safety Marcus GIlchrist, safeties Eric Hagg and Jaiqwuan Jarrett. 

A lot of the guys I list above have some good talent that can be improved upon and made into contributing players. McElroy is well known but Indiana's Ben Chappell has flown under the radar. His decision making is sometimes in question but he sees the field very well. Running back Bilal Powell reminds me of James Starks up in Green Bay as they have the same running style. Wide receivers Vincent Brown, Ryan Whalen and Dane Sanzenbacher are all guys who are the cookie-cutter route runners who understand the game and have good hands. All three work hard and are overachievers. Aldrick Robinson has talent but he needs to continue to work hard. 

Defensively, Sione Fua is somewhat reminiscent of Aubrayo Franklin out in San Francisco. Mark Herzlich is well known and has a lot of talent. How far has he come from his recovery of cancer? How will it affect him at the next level? For a guy who works so hard, you might be tempted to take a chance on him somewhere in round four or five. Cornerback Davon House has flown under the radar because he's out in New Mexico State but he's a quality talent that has a ton of upside. He's durable and is tough. Big fan of his. Brandyn Thompson is somewhat forgotten because he's not all that big but he's got some Asante Samuel qualities in his game. I think he may surprise some people. Burney is a Cover 2 Buc corner; a hard corner who can play nickel and cover the flats. Gilchrist is versatile while Jarrett and Hagg are smart, tough players. 

TGTS: You're the Carolina Panthers...the GM has mandated you draft a defensive player, so who do you take between Marcel Dareus, Patrick Peterson, Von Miller, Nick Fairley, or someone else and why?

AD: I select Marcel Dareus out of Alabama because he's the best player from that group. He's a hard working defensive tackle that has versatility in the way that he can play most positions on the line and he's a damn good player. He's explosive, tough, can play the run and as I said, is versatile. In some ways, he is similar to Richard Seymour but he's not as dominant as Seymour is/was. 

Nick Fairley has too many questions and not enough on his resume for me. Patrick Peterson is a good cornerback that has a lot of natural talent but he needs to work on his technique. He can't forever rely on his natural talents. Von Miller is a very talented player but I think that he needs work as a pass rusher. He's going to be a good player in this league and he will make someone happy but I'd rather have Dareus.

TGTS: Some teams, like the Eagles and Patriots, who have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds, often trade down and/or trade players for future picks. What do you think of this strategy, and does it help or hinder teams like that when you have so many rookies?

AD: I am a big fan of the strategy because I think you need to stick to your board. If the player(s) you don't want are there, move the pick. Teams sometimes end up forcing the selection and are not happy with the outcome. The Patriots have a strict board and a smaller one than other teams. Runs about 90 players and Belichick likes to use the old Jimmy Johnson strategy of picking out guys from the draft that he likes and then if the guy is not there, get rid of the pick. 

I think if you keep the picks, it does hinder your team because you end up being very young. To be successful in the NFL, you need to have a good blend of veterans and younger guys. That way the young guys can learn and are not pressured into the lineup but are still contributors. 

TGTS: We saw the Packers win a Super Bowl with a RB drafted in the 6th round; Arian Foster led the league and rushing and went undrafted, as did LeGarrette Blount. Do you think teams are abandoning taking RBs early because it's an easy position to fix, or is there additional value in drafting someone highly - such as guys like Mark Ingram and Mikel Leshoure figure to be this year?

AD: I think it’s a little bit of both. The running back position is one that has a short career and a lot of the players at that position can be replaced when you have a strong offensive line. Taking a running back high, like Ingram or LeShoure, has value because some of the running backs you take high likely have a trait that separates them from other tailbacks. For example, instincts, the ability to find the cutback lane at a higher rate than others, the ability to hit the homerun. The homerun is not something that's common in the NFL so when you have a guy that can break it every now and then, you consider taking him higher than you would other running backs. Guys like Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson fit that criteria. 

TGTS: Aside from Andrew Luck, give us 5 potential draft prospects you're looking forward to seeing in the 2012 draft.

AD:

Seniors only list

1. Ryan Lindley, QB, San Diego St.
2. Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma
3. Jared Crick, DT, Nebraska
4. Tank Carder, LB, TCU
5. Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
Potential underclassmen

1. Matt Barkley, QB, USC
2. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
3. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
4. Chase Thomas, LB, Stanford
5. Josh Robinson, CB, UCF

A big thanks goes out to Alen for helping us with this interview. I’ll have some more about the NFL Draft coming up soon, including my take on the Big 4 QBs in the draft – Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton, and Christian Ponder (no, Jake Locker is NOT one, sorry Todd McShay), as well as a mock draft coming up towards the weekend.