Bulls - Hawks Preview: DRose & Co. v. the Nobodys

I know Game 1 happened last night, and I now look like an idiot for writing this preview. However, if you want proof that I did write this prior to Game 1, click here. AND... since I don't really have time this week to get another preview up, I'm going to say Lakers in 7 (I know the Mavs won Game 1, but I just don't think they have enough of a supporting cast to get by the Lakers).

Well these two teams' respective first round series could not have gone much differently.

Bulls fans—as expected—watched Derrick Rose lead a very balanced attack (five scorers averaged double figures) in a ho-hum five game series against the Pacers. They probably would have swept had Rose not tweaked his ankle in Game 3, leading to a Game 4 loss in one of the worst games of his career (6-22 FG, 1-9 3FG).

Meanwhile, the Hawks shocked the world by destroying the Orlando Magic in six games. No one gave the Hawks a prayer in that series, including myself. But similar to the Bulls, they utilized a balanced attack with five players in double figures.

My problem with the Hawks is that they don't have THAT guy. The one that they can count on to cut the throat out of the other team (and I'm not accepting that Jamal Crawford's ugly as hell bank counts as a cutthroat player).

These are two very balanced teams, so this should be a fun series...right? Not really. Not when one balanced team is a WHOLE lot better than the other.

SERIES STUD: Derrick Rose. DRose had a spectacular Game 1 and 2, earning his (probable) MVP status, and he averaged 37.5 points, 7 rebounds and 6.5 assists. Rose's penetration skills were hindered in Games 3-5 against the Pacers after tweaking his ankle early in Game 3. In those games, Rose averaged 21 points, 3 rebounds and 6 assists. Pedestrian numbers by his standards.

In Games 4 and 5 he had 11 FT attempts combined, less than any other game in the series by itself. He obviously was not taking the rock to the hole like his usual self, which is a bad thing considering he shot 21 percent from behind the arc in the first round. With six days off between the last game and Game 1 against the Hawks, I fully expect Rose to be healthy.

Combine that with the fact that there is no one—seriously, no one—to guard him on the Hawks, Rose will be running up and down the court like he's the lead bull at Pamplona this series.

DA BULLS: In a way, Rose's injury may have been the best thing to happen to a Bulls team that is inexperienced with winning in the playoffs. The Pacers didn't roll over in any game except for the finale; the first four games were decided by six points or less. The Bulls had to be focused, and were challenged by a tough Indianapolis ballclub.

Other players were forced to step up when it mattered, and this team showed what it really is—a team. That team is going to give the Hawks fits.

The mid 90's Bulls, while they had MJ, had a multitude of guys who could show up on any given night. Guys like John Paxson, Steve Kerr, Toni Kukoc, and Bill Wennington (kidding!) come to mind.

Against the Pacers, Kyle Korver knocked down threes, Taj Gibson provided a spark off the bench when Carlos Boozer proved ineffective (seriously Boozer, grow a pair), and Joakim Noah/Kurt Thomas provided an elbow throwing, trash talking presence down low that frustrated the Pacers. In particular, I was really impressed by the king of the mid-range jumper, Luol Deng. In the Bulls' Game 3 and 5 wins, he stepped up to contribute 21 points in both.

With the particular skill sets of each individual player meshing together, it's going to create matchup problems for the Hawks all over the place. Throw in Coach Tom Thibodeau's trademark lockdown defense, and this team is going to be hard to stop moving forward.
Expect more of this balanced attack in this series, but make no mistake—Derrick Rose is the star of the show. And with no one there to guard him, it should be a quick series for Da Bulls.

THE HAWKS: At 100 percent health, the Hawks' chances in this series were on thin ice to begin with. But the news of Kirk Hinrich being out for the entire series due to a hamstring injury suffered in Game 6 of the first round means the Hawks are now struggling to keep their heads above water.

Hinrich brought a stabilizing force and a feisty intensity to this team that desperately needed a leader (yes, I'm looking at you, "superstar" Joe Johnson) to spark it as it churned along toward the postseason.

Everything's going against the Hawks in this Series. In Round 1, they had to play a certain style of game—mainly a large lineup—in order to contain Dwight Howard. After Howard's 46 point, 19 rebound effort in Game 1, Al Horford and Jason Collins did what they could.

But now they're having to defend a completely different team, led by a point guard, which entails a completely different game plan and a completely different style of play. Transitioning like that is not an easy feat to accomplish, as players that you didn't rely on in Round 1 (Marvin Williams, Jeff Teague) are going to be asked to step right in.

Basically, the Bulls present a ton of matchup problems for the Hawks, and I see this team sinking fast in Round 2.

PREDICTION: I'm a little weary of saying that the Hawks don't have a prayer here, as I made the same prediction about their series against the Magic. But my friends, these Chicago Bulls are not the Orlando Magic. Comparing those two teams is like comparing a Toyota Corolla to a Mercedes Benz.

And if the Bulls are a Benz, in this series the Hawks are the pavement. Bulls roll in 5.

NBA First Round Preview - Part 1B

Now that I'm back from the freezing cold Cincinnati Reds/Pittsburgh Pirates game, which was completely not worth it (including a ridiculous $15 parking fee), I'm ready to finish up today's games.

(4) Orlando Magic v. (5) Atlanta Hawks: Neither of these teams is a “sexy” pick. The Magic have Dwight Howard and a cast of solid players. The Hawks have Al Horford, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith, players that should be given more credit for their skills but can’t really carry a team by themselves. Both teams are extremely solid, and are compiled in a manner that makes sense. Overshadowed by some of the other matchups, this one may fall behind the wayside. Instead of letting that happen, let’s dive right in.

Series Stud: Dwight Howard. I didn’t want to put him here. I really didn’t. But neither team has anyone else who let me think about leaving him out of this spot. I just have a problem with Dwight. Bill Simmons pointed out in either an article or a podcast recently that Dwight should without a doubt be the game’s most dominant player. Just look at the man. He’s a beast. He has the body of a center but the hops, speed and agility of a guard. So why isn’t he better? He reminds me of the kid we all knew that studied for 10 minutes and got a decent grade on the exam. Why doesn’t that kid work just a little bit harder to get the 100? Because he’s content with the 92. With Howard, I understand that 22.9 points and 14.1 rebounds a game isn’t exactly slacktastic, but it seems like he’s not getting better. I want to see him push to attempt a 30-15 season. I want to see him work to shoot better than 60% from the line. I want to see him really develop a low-post repertoire rather than just try and overpower everyone.

The Magic: I think that this team should be great. But when you have the Celtics, Heat, and Bulls in your conference, it makes it difficult. The Magic are like the really good looking girl lost in a the group of supermodels. Stack her up against some better competition, and she’d be a 10. Orlando dumped Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis (great moves), and added Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, and Gilbert Arenas to a solid core of Howard, Jameer Nelson, Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson, and J.J. Redick. When the Magic made the trades, I loved them and thought they would challenge for the Eastern Conference title. Now, I just don’t see it, but they will dominate the Hawks. No one is going to stop Dwight Howard from scoring or getting the rebounds, and I don’t see anyone on Atlanta’s roster being able to contain Jameer Nelson and Gilbert Arenas (assuming Arenas is healthy). The Magic shoot the ball well, and have the 4^th best defensive FG%. Let’s see how they react in later rounds.

The Hawks: The Hawks chances just don’t look good. I’ve been impressed with this team’s ability the last few years after two decades of non-relevance, but they just haven’t been able to take that next step. Led by overpaid non-superstar Joe Johnson, the team was searching for an identity until the acquisition of Kirk Hinrich. He added a little feistiness to a team that needed it, but they stumbled into the playoffs losing the last six games. If forwards Josh Smith or Al Horford turns into kryptonite and shut down Superman (Dwight Howard), they could push the series deep. But here’s the two stats that jump out at me. The Hawks are 28^th in the league in rebounding, and are 26^th in the league in points per game. When you’re going up against the 4^th best defense and 6^th best rebounding team, it just doesn’t bode well for the team. Better luck next year.

Prediction: Magic in 6. I like the Hawks. I think they have a great core of young talent. But that core isn’t going to get it done against an experienced Magic team that is trying to recapture the magic (no pun intended) from the 2009 Finals run. Howard dominates, Nelson/Arenas controls the ball, and the Magic move on to fact the Bulls in round two.

(3) Dallas Mavericks v. (6) Portland Trail Blazers: This is going to be a good one. A series full of contrast. The Mavs: an older team led by one 7-foot forward superstar; backed up by veterans seeking their first rings; rely on offense and can’t really guard anyone unless they’re playing a zone defense. The Blazers: a younger team led by a young, injury-plagued guard; a balanced attack; leading, hardened veteran role players; rely on tenacious defense and pushing the pace on offense. This series can go either way.

Series Stud: Dirk Nowitzki. Can somebody tell me how Dallas won 57 games? Seriously. I mean, Dallas has a washed up cast of complementary players. Jason Terry, Caron Butler, Shawn Marion, Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic, Jason Kidd. Five years ago, that team is winning championship after championship. So it makes you appreciate the job that Dirk did this season that much more. He shoots 51% from the field, astounding for a person who shoots a ton of 3’s, which he makes at 39%. With one of the prettiest offensive skill sets in the game, the surefire Hall of Famer deserves another star to complement his play. Nowitzki’s averaged 25 points and 10 rebounds throughout his career in the playoffs. That’s pretty damn good. Mark Cuban’s gotta make it happen before Dirk follows up Karl Malone, John Stockton, Charles Barkley, and Clyde Drexler on the list of “Great Players to Never Win a Title.”

The Mavs: The Mavs aren’t great at any one thing, but they don’t suck at anything either. That’s to me how I describe this team. They’re “Meh.” They’re not “nice,” they’re just “Meh.” Dirk is the catalyst, and Jason Kidd can still pass the ball with the best of them even though he basically is now a figurehead on the defensive end of the court. The midseason addition of Peja Stojakovic gives Dallas another 3-point threat to spread the floor, and the acquisition of Corey Brewer shores up the perimeter defense since Kidd can’t guard a scarecrow. There’s a lot of parts to this team that I really like. But like I said a minute ago, when I see this roster I can’t help but think I wanted to see it five years ago. I loved Shawn Marion. I loved Peja. Kidd was one of my favorite players growing up. Throw in Caron Butler, and I just see a roster of players on the downsides of their careers. Where’s the potential? Where’s the young guns? I want to see Dallas make some moves this offseason to give Dirk a playmate on the court. In the playoffs, teams are going to hone in on your best player. If no one else steps up, it’s game over.

The Blazers: I see a lot of similarities in the Mavs and the Blazers. But I see the youth, I see the fire in the vets, and I see the chemistry. They rely on each other. LaMarcus Aldridge has blossomed into one of the game’s best players this year. His All-Star snub was inexcusable, and he’s used that as motivation, posting 21.8 PPG and 8.8 RPG. He’s been able to take over games at times, which the team needed once Brandon Roy went down with an injury. Veteran Andre Miller has been the best teammate he’s been in his career, giving up shots and focusing on distributing the basketball. Fellow geezer Marcus Camby has been his usual defensive presence under the hoop, forcing people to alter their shots. Since his acquisition from Charlotte, Gerald Wallace has provided a shot in the arm on both sides of the floor. Throw in team leader Brandon Roy’s return from injury to the perimeter lineup of Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and sixth man Rudy Fernandez, and this is a team that no one wants to see in the playoffs. Too bad Greg Oden isn’t playing, because this would be a scary team. Then again, Oden seems to have been a distraction during his Portland tenure, both on (through injury after injury) and off (cough… naked pics… cough) the court. If the Blazers can break down the Dallas zone defense by knocking down some threes, Dallas is in trouble.

Prediction: Blazers in 6. The Blazers can shut down Nowitzki (and by shut down, I mean contain) on the perimeter with their depth, length and speed. Marcus Camby and Aldridge can contain Dirk down in the post. Who else is going to step up for the Mavs? No one. The balanced attack led by Andre Miller goes "Boom-shaka-laka" and takes down the Mavs in the most entertaining series we've seen in awhile.

Part 2 of the preview tomorrow, followed by by picks for the rest of the playoffs.